Dr. Paul Morland is a leading demographer, author and broadcaster who writes and speaks about population and the big demographic trends across the world. He joins NCF Senior Fellow Rafe Heydel-Mankoo to discuss Britain’s demographic future.
Why Sunday’s Andalusian vote is Spain’s true general-election dress rehearsal
Andalusia, Spain’s largest region by population, votes for its regional parliament on Sunday, May 17. For the political classes in Madrid the ballot is far more than a routine regional contest: with no separatist parties competing seriously and a sociology that closely mirrors the country as a whole, the result will offer the most reliable preview yet of Spain’s next general election, expected by 2027.
Some 6.8 million Andalusians are eligible to vote, of whom 369,000 will do so for the first time. The community is bigger, in electoral terms, than the other three Spanish regions that have voted so far this spring put together.
Few Spanish elections offer a cleaner read on national sentiment. Andalusia is spread across eight provinces and 785 municipalities, with a balanced mix of large cities such as Seville and Málaga, mid-sized towns and depopulated rural areas. Unlike Catalonia, the Basque Country or Galicia, it has almost no separatist or peripheral-nationalist representation. The contest plays out essentially between the same five political families that dominate national politics – the centre-right Partido Popular (PP), the Spanish Socialist Workers’ Party (PSOE), the Conservative Vox party, the left-wing Por Andalucía coalition and the andalucista Adelante Andalucía.
For decades that uniformity made Andalusia the rock on which the PSOE built its national majorities. The party governed the region uninterruptedly from 1982 to 2019, often with more than half of the vote. Moreno Bonilla’s PP broke that hegemony in 2019 with the support of Ciudadanos and Vox, and won an absolute majority in 2022.
The reverse logic now applies. If the socialists collapse in their old fortress, the rest of Spain is unlikely to look much different.
WHAT THE POLLS SAY
Surveys published before Spain’s legal pre-election blackout have pointed consistently in the same direction. The polling aggregate produced by The Objective on May 11 gave the PP 57 seats out of 109, the PSOE 28, Vox 17, Por Andalucía 5 and Adelante Andalucía 2. The model placed Moreno’s chances of holding an absolute majority – the magic threshold sits at 55 seats – at 81 per cent.
Other recent polls have been more cautious. GAD3 for Vocento and Sociométrica for El Español have placed the PP between 54 and 56 seats, leaving the absolute majority hanging on a handful of provincial votes in Córdoba, Granada and Huelva.
What every survey agrees on is the historic collapse of the PSOE. Its candidate, María Jesús Montero, is projected to fall to her party’s worst-ever Andalusian result, in the 21-24 per cent range and 25 to 30 seats. Vox is expected to improve on its 2022 score of 14 seats; should the PP’s absolute majority slip even by a single deputy, Santiago Abascal’s party would once again become indispensable for any government of the right.
A TEST FOR SÁNCHEZ AND MONTERO
The most immediate national casualty of a heavy defeat would be Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez. Already weakened by a string of corruption investigations involving members of his inner circle and his own family, the premier has campaigned aggressively alongside former Prime Minister José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero in the region that elects almost one in five Spanish voters.
The bet is unusually exposed. Montero is no ordinary regional candidate: she served as Spain’s Finance Minister from 2018 until March 2026 and as First Vice-President of the Government from 2023, holding the PSOE’s number-two spot in Madrid before resigning her national offices to lead the Andalusian campaign.
A result below 30 seats would open a debate inside the PSOE over the party’s strategy on Catalan amnesty deals, the so-called financiación singular for Catalonia and the broader pivot towards alliances with Catalan and Basque nationalists – a pivot Moreno has built much of his campaign on attacking.
A TEST FOR FEIJOO AND ABASCAL
For the opposition the stakes cut in two directions. A solid PP absolute majority would validate Alberto Núñez Feijoo’s bet on a moderate, technocratic brand and hand the party leader his strongest argument yet against future general-election dependence on Vox. A shortfall, even by one seat, would force Moreno to negotiate with Santiago Abascal’s party and reopen the long bargaining processes seen this year in Extremadura and Aragón.
Extremadura spent four months negotiating before the PP and Vox finally agreed a coalition built around the latter’s “national priority” doctrine, which would prioritise Spanish nationals in access to certain regional benefits. Aragón has faced similar talks. Moreno has repeatedly invoked those examples as the kind of líos he wants Andalusia to avoid – a framing his right-wing critics view as a tactical hedge against the very voters whose support he will need if he falls short.
For Vox the contest is a strategic moment. Becoming kingmaker would consolidate its national leverage and align Spain with the broader European trend that has carried right-wing parties to government or first place in Italy, the Netherlands, Finland, Sweden and Hungary, with Alternative for Germany (AfD) and France’s Rassemblement National still rising. A more modest result would not undo that wave but would slow its Spanish chapter.
WHAT SPAIN WILL WATCH
By Sunday night, the answer to four questions will tell Spain a great deal about its next general election. Can the PP win alone? Can the PSOE hold its historic floor? Is Vox still rising? And does the moderate centre-right outpoll the harder right by enough to keep Feijoo’s strategy alive? Few regional ballots offer so much information in a single evening.
The next polling stations to open after Andalusia will, in all likelihood, be those of the general election. By then, half of the story will already have been told.
UK: Teenage Stabbing Victim Died After Being Handcuffed by Police in Southampton Over Racism Allegation
The teenage victim of a stabbing died after officers arriving at the scene handcuffed him based on the alleged knifeman’s claim that he’d been the victim of a racist remark, a court has heard.
Anglo-Polish heritage university undergraduate Henry Nowak was stabbed to death after a night out with friends by 23-year-old Vickrum Digwa, a court has heard.
Digwa stands accused of murder and of carrying a knife in a public place, while his mother,53-year-old Kiran Kaur is accused of assisting an offender.
The court heard that while Nowak had been drinking that evening while out socialising with friends from his football team, his blood alcohol level was low enough that he would have been legal to drive a car. While walking home he is said to have encountered Digwa in the street, and the two exchanged words.
A video Nowak recorded of the interaction on his mobile phone of the moment the two met shoed him call out “Innit bad man, what bad man. You’re a bad man, say you’re a bad man, go on”. Digwa, who was wearing an “extremely large” knife worn over his chest, replied in the video as seen by the jury “I am a bad man” before it cut out, notes Sky News.
Witnesses stated they heard Nowak say he had been stabbed and was dying, as he fled Digwa who “chose to aggressively pursue him”. Police were called, and when officers arrived Digwa told them “he had been racially abused and attacked by a drunken man”.
Accountancy and finance student Nowak protested that he hadn’t attacked Digwa and had in fact been stabbed himself. Nevertheless, Officers handcuffed Nowak, who died at the scene shortly afterwards. A post-mortem subsequently discovered four stab wounds on Henry’s body.
The prosecution said: “Put simply, Henry drowned in his own blood with his lung having been cut by the knife going eight centimetres into him… [Digwa] didn’t seek help for the man he had injured with his sizeable knife, instead he accused him of being a racist and being drunk.”
The court further heard that Nowak’s mobile phone was later discovered by officers in Digwa’s pocket. It is further claimed that Digwa’s father, mother, and brother came to the scene. His mother is said to have been filmed removing the alleged murder weapon, taking it to her home nearby.
Police subsequently found the knife among an “arsenal of weapons” there and Kaur has been charged with assisting an offender, reports the BBC.
The court heard Digwa is of the Sikh faith and that this faith requires its followers to carry a knife at all times. Generally, this obligation is fulfilled by a small ceremonial blade called a kirpan, and there is a special exemption from Britain’s otherwise extremely strict knife laws to allow this.
The court heard that at the time of the alleged attack, Digwa was found to be carrying two small kirpans about the body, as well as the much larger eight inch shastar knife it is alleged his mother attempted to hide.
The Daily Mail states Digwa’s defence lawyer said the knives were carried legitimately and that his client acted in the “heat of the moment in self defence”, questioning whether “drunk” Novak “started this incident”.
Digwa and Kaur deny all charges. The trial continues.
UK: Syrian man found guilty of raping a young woman in a portaloo on Bournemouth beach

A Syrian man has been found guilty of raping a young woman in a portaloo on Bournemouth Beach, after offering her a life home on his E-bike.
At Bournemouth Crown Court today, Mohammed Abdullah, 19, was convicted by a jury of two separate allegations, rape and assault by penetration, after three hours of deliberation.
Throughout the trial, Abdullah, who gave evidence with the help of an Arabic interpreter, denied all allegations, claiming that what took place was consensual and that he “asked her more than once”.
However, Mr Eldridge, prosecuting, told jurors in his closing speech “she did not consent at all,” and “she simply wanted to go home”.
As the verdict came in, the victim broke down in court.
The incident took place in the early hours of July 6th 2025, after the victim, 19, was out celebrating her birthday.
The court heard that she had become intoxicated and separated from friends and was attempting to arrange a taxi home when her phone died.
With limited options, the prosecution told the court that she approached a group of men on the beach “who looked to be in their early 20s” to ask for directions.
Describing the victim, Abdullah told the court “everything about her was normal”.
But in the closing, the prosecution urged the jury to “consider the condition she was in” at the time of the incident.
In Abdullah’s interview with the police, he told them “she wanted to go home, I thought I could help her by giving her a lift”.
Instead, the teen migrant took her a short distance along the beach, before stopping at a portaloo.
In the prosecution’s case, a witness was called upon, a passerby, who described the defendant trying to take the victim behind the toilets.
The witness, concerned enough to speak out, shouted at Abdullah “I hope you’re not going to do anything with her”.
Mr Eldridge told the court that the Syrian national then “grabbed the victim’s arm and dragged her inside the Portaloo, then shut the door and locked it,” and proceeded to rape her.
The jury then heard the victim recall that “when he finished with me” Abdullah exited the public toilet, and rode away towards his friends in the distance.
In her police interview, the young woman said she was afraid to resist as “there were more of them than there were me.”
The defence told the jury that Abdullah arrived in the UK in September 2023 as part of the ‘Family Reunion Scheme’ and his entire family now have permanent leave to remain.
The Syrian national was 16 when he came to the UK, and is now residing in West Drayton in the London Borough of Hillingdon.
Mr Richarch Tutt, defending, said that he is now studying English here, as well as working part time as a trainee barber.
UK: Asylum seeker grabs knife, shouts “Allah Akbar”
An asylum seeker allegedly advanced towards a PSNI officer with a knife before shouting the Islamic proclamation “Allahu Akbar”, a court heard today.
The officer was forced to draw his gun when Libyan national Hamza Banali, 24, confronted him in the Holyland area of south Belfast at the weekend, a judge was told.
Banali, of address at Farnham Street in the city, denies any religious or hate motivation behind an incident linked to reports of cars being damaged in the area.
He appeared at Belfast Magistrates’ Court charged with possessing a bladed article in a public place and resisting police.
Officers went to Damascus Street late on Saturday night amid claims that a man was damaging parked cars with a knife.
Banali, who is originally from Tripoli, was approached after he matched the description given of the perpetrator.
“He advanced towards the police, drawing a short, bladed knife,” an investigating detective claimed.
A sergeant at the scene then drew his gun, telling him to drop the knife and get onto the ground.
Meloni tightens access to public housing in Italy and will give priority to Italian citizens over foreigners

The Italian government is once again placing national priorities at the heart of the political debate. Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni has endorsed a new housing plan that tightens eligibility requirements for housing assistance and gives preference to Italian citizens over foreigners.
The measure comes at a particularly delicate time for thousands of Italian families who are reporting growing difficulties in accessing affordable rentals, public housing and state aid while the cost of living continues to put pressure on household budgets.
The government argues that public resources are limited and should be allocated first to those who have been contributing to the Italian system for years.
The new approach includes changes to the criteria for accessing subsidized housing and other social programs related to housing, prioritizing roots, employment status and nationality in certain cases.
The governing coalition maintains that the decision responds to an increasingly visible demand among broad sectors of society who consider it unfair that Italian citizens have to wait for years while newly arrived people access certain public benefits.
The left-wing opposition and several pro-immigration organizations have reacted strongly, accusing the government of promoting discriminatory policies. However, the government rejects these criticisms and maintains that its obligation is to protect Italian families first.
The housing debate has worsened in major cities like Rome, Milan, and Naples, where rental prices have risen sharply and thousands of young people are still unable to become independent.
Added to this is the migratory pressure that Italy has been enduring for years across the Mediterranean, an issue that has reinforced Meloni’s discourse on borders, sovereignty and control of public spending.
The prime minister has made these policies one of her main priorities since coming to power and maintains high levels of support among voters who demand tougher measures on immigration and greater protection for nationals.
For its supporters, the measure corrects obvious imbalances. For its critics, it opens a new political front within the European Union.
What does seem clear is that Meloni continues to forge her own path in the face of a European left that for years has defended immigration policies that many citizens consider disconnected from the real problems of housing, security and cost of living.
Britain Is the Canary in the Coal Mine

by J.B. Shurk
The United Kingdom’s recent elections were a bloodbath for the Establishment political parties and a resounding success for Nigel Farage’s Reform UK. Voters are furious with their “ruling elites.” Because these were local elections, though, Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s Labour Party remains in control of the national government. Therefore, the election results will likely prove symbolically seismic yet practically anemic.
Starmer insists on rejecting the democratic will of Brexit voters and reintegrating the U.K. with the European Union. The “ruling elite’s” hostility toward British citizens’ desire for national sovereignty will produce many unsavory outcomes, including a likely surge of foreign migrants resettling in the U.K. Whereas the local elections have been correctly interpreted as an expression of the public’s overwhelming opposition to mass migration of foreigners into their communities, Starmer’s Labour Party will exacerbate the problem.
Ever since voters chose to leave the E.U. back in 2016, the U.K.’s political Establishment (Conservative and Labour) has undermined the effort. It took four years to negotiate a “divorce” that ended up looking more like a temporary separation. Many of the most important issues for British citizens — including the reimplementation of sovereign decision-making over economic, regulatory, and immigration policies — were almost immediately watered-down, skirted through legal workarounds, or outright ignored.
Ten years ago, the Brits tried to take their country back from the globalists who use all national homelands as little more than junkyards for spare parts, plantations for slave labor, or dumping grounds for unwanted migrants. As the globalists have remained in control of the national and international institutions, however, they simply bided their time and hollowed out the substance of the people’s vote until the consequential referendum became Brexit-in-name-only. The will of ordinary voters proved insufficient to overcome the political and economic power of bureaucratic armies — especially when those armies are funded in perpetuity by the very taxpayers who oppose them.
The U.K.’s local elections, then, should be seen as part of the rolling tug-of-war between citizens and “ruling class” bureaucrats over the last decade. Regular Brits have done everything they can to pull their country back from the globalist abyss into which Establishment “elites” wish to drag all nations. They have voted, protested, expressed themselves online, and marched through the streets. In turn, the U.K.’s “ruling class” ignored voters, criminalized protest as “hate speech,” censored online debate, and defamed marchers as “far-right fascists.”
To make matters immeasurably worse, the political Establishment has been exposed as a complicit partner in a decades-long Islamic rape gang scandal that has destroyed families across the U.K. While covering up the heinous crimes of foreign nationals abusing, raping, and murdering British girls, the “ruling class” directed police forces to intimidate and silence any British citizens discussing these important public safety matters online or at protest rallies. In other words, the British Establishment took the side of foreign criminals and betrayed the British family.
The “elites” have spent the last decade undermining the spirit of self-government while simultaneously puffing out their chests and pretending to be arch-defenders of “democracy.” Where do things go from here? Well, as President Kennedy warned, “Those who make peaceful revolution impossible will make violent revolution inevitable.” It is worth noting that a growing chorus of British scholars, military veterans, and foreign policy professionals are stating emphatically: The United Kingdom is headed for civil war.
As the combustible U.K. is a canary in the coal mine for the rest of Europe, Canada, Australia, and the United States, it is important to see Britain’s suicide with clear eyes.
Until WWII, the United Kingdom was the largest empire that the world has known. It stretched across a quarter of the planet’s landmass and included a quarter of the planet’s population. It was the industrial powerhouse of the nineteenth century and was regarded as the “workshop of the world.” British naval power controlled the oceans and dominated global commerce. In the late 1800s, the U.K. produced roughly 30% of the whole planet’s industrial output and 25% of global trade. The United States did not economically surpass Britain until the third year of WWI. London banks financed projects on every continent, and the British pound sterling remained the world reserve currency until after WWII.
Today, the U.K. produces next to nothing. Its mines are closed. Its valuable North Sea oil and gas fields are untapped. The U.K.’s largest steelworks shut down its final furnace two years ago, and now the British government is scrambling to nationalize the historic British Steel currently controlled by the Chinese. With regard to the potential takeover of the plant, Prime Minister Starmer said, “Strong nations in a world like this need to make steel.” You think?
How did the British government allow Chinese communists to take control of a vital national industry? Three simple (and infuriating) reasons: (1) China’s centralized economy has flooded the globe with cheap steel (sold at a loss) as a form of economic warfare that bankrupts companies all over the world. (2) Britain’s insane “green energy” policies force British steelmakers to pay much more for energy than Chinese steelworks. (3) Britain’s suicidal “green energy” policies forced British steelmakers to “upgrade” their plants to electric arc furnaces, which, coincidentally enough, Chinese companies have been happy to build by taking advantage of “green credits” from the British government.
This kind of mentality is how you lose an empire and never win it back. Through irrational, unscientific, and economically suicidal “green energy” policies, the British government destroyed its industrial self-sufficiency, handed over its physical capital to China’s government, and actually paid the Chinese with taxpayer funds. You cannot remain a nation when you are paying other nations to defeat you in battle. Yet this kind of buffoonery has dominated all of Europe in the present century.
You cannot be a great country without a self-sufficient economy. This is the only discipline in our world where the subject of “diversity” should be greeted with seriousness, not snickering. For a nation to protect its people’s futures, it must be economically diverse enough to provide for its people’s needs. It must strive to strengthen its industrial backbone, broaden its manufacturing capacity, encourage technological innovation, and foster small-business entrepreneurship. An industrious, ingenious domestic labor force produces national wealth. Diversify a national economy to the point that your country competes in every available market, and you make your country immune from hostile takeovers.
The U.K. has chosen the path to subjugation and serfdom. The British government would rather depend upon Chinese slave labor than British labor. It would rather depend upon Chinese electronics, pharmaceuticals, textiles, and steel than produce those critical products at home. It would rather depend upon China’s coal plants to keep import prices down than use its own valuable oil and natural gas fields to power the nation.
Banking fees, insider trading, and currency manipulation can artificially elevate a country’s ostensible economic outlook for decades. Eventually, however, if a nation mines nothing and makes nothing, its balance sheets will show nothing but debt. If a nation uses foreign workers abroad and foreign workers at home to perform all the jobs that its people require, citizens will have nothing but debt, too.
Poor nations whose people share a common culture can endure great suffering and remain united. Nations divided by many cultures approach suffering as a feeding frenzy wherein every tribe fights to survive. Britain survived the hardships of WWII because it was a united nation. After a century of mass immigration, it will not survive the next war.
To anybody in the West who wishes to avoid the United Kingdom’s fate: Pay attention. What happens there will happen everywhere. Replacing globalism with national self-sufficiency is a life or death decision. Choose accordingly.
Berlin bus passenger in critical condition after Syrian suspect stabbed him in the neck for refusing cigarette

A Syrian migrant accused of stabbing a bus passenger in the neck from behind after being refused a cigarette is set to appear before a judge in Berlin as police investigate whether he was also responsible for a later knife threat against a woman on another bus.
The first attack took place at around 5:50 a.m. on Thursday at the Hermannstraße/Sonnenallee bus stop in Berlin’s Neukölln district. According to police, a 33-year-old man was preparing to board the M41 bus when a 36-year-old man suddenly attacked him from behind with a knife, stabbing him in the neck.

The suspect initially fled the scene, while the victim collapsed with serious injuries. The bus driver alerted the emergency services, and paramedics treated the injured man before taking him to hospital, where he underwent emergency surgery.
Police initially said the victim’s condition was critical. According to an update reported by Tagesspiegel on Friday, he remains seriously injured but is now conscious and able to communicate.
Investigators said the suspect had approached the 33-year-old shortly before the attack and asked him for a cigarette. The victim refused. A short time later, as he boarded the bus, the attacker allegedly stabbed him from behind.
Police are also examining whether the same man was involved in a second incident later that morning. At around 9:35 a.m., a 36-year-old woman was threatened with a knife on the M29 bus on Pannierstraße and forced to hand over money.
Authorities are still trying to verify the suspect’s identity, but several media outlets, including Bild, reported that he had claimed to be Syrian and born in Damascus.
The suspect is expected to be brought before a judge on Friday as prosecutors seek an arrest warrant.
A police investigation into aggravated assault is ongoing.
The attack comes amid growing concern over violent crime on Germany’s public transport network, with several serious assaults reported on buses, trains, and at stations in recent months.
Last month, a 13-year-old Iraqi-born repeat offender was arrested after a 62-year-old bus driver was beaten into a coma in Leipzig.
The confrontation reportedly began after the driver told a group of disruptive youths to be quiet on bus route 90 near the Sophienstraße stop. Police initially described the incident only as a physical altercation in which the driver was injured and required inpatient hospital treatment, but later reports said the teenager had struck him with at least three headbutts.
Because of his age, the 13-year-old cannot be held criminally responsible under German law.
In March, an 18-year-old woman was seriously wounded in a knife attack on a regional train near Sulzbach in Saarland. Police said the alleged attacker, a 21-year-old man, was arrested at the scene and that the two knew each other before the incident. The woman was taken to the hospital with serious injuries, although officials said she was not in critical condition.
That case followed another fatal attack in Saarland in February, when a train conductor was beaten to death on the route between Landstuhl and Homburg. The Greek national responsible struck the conductor repeatedly in the head with such force that the victim died several days later.
Also in February, three foreign nationals from Yemen, Eritrea, and Sierra Leone were accused of beating a 38-year-old man at Rosenheim station after he asked them to be quieter. The three suspects were charged with grievous bodily harm, according to the Federal Police Directorate Munich.
Official figures and media reports have pointed to a wider rise in violence across Germany’s transport system. Welt reported that violent crimes at Berlin Central Station tripled in 2024 compared with 2019, while Cologne saw a 70 percent increase over the same period.
Jens Spahn, the CDU parliamentary group leader, linked the conditions at major train stations to wider problems in German cities, saying in a Bild interview, “Look at a main train station, in Duisburg, in Hamburg, in Frankfurt. Neglect, drug dealers, young men, mostly with a migrant background, mostly from Eastern Europe or Arab-Muslim cultural areas. This also has to do with irregular migration, as it looks in our inner cities, in the marketplaces.”
Transgender Serial Killer Convicted of Slaying, Dismembering Third Female Victim

A prolific transgender serial killer with prior convictions for the murders of two women has been convicted for the third time in the grisly slaying and dismemberment of a third female victim. Harvey Marcelin, 87, who previously claimed to identify as a “lesbian” called Marceline Harvey, was convicted in a New York court last week of the murder of 68-year-old Susan Leyden.
In March 2022, Leyden’s headless torso was found in a shopping cart blocks away from Marcelin’s Brooklyn apartment, prompting police to search Marcelin’s residence. There investigators discovered Leyden’s head, as well as a number of saws and bloody sheets. One of Leyden’s legs was found near a garbage can a few blocks away.
On March 11, the NYPD held a press conference with updates on the gruesome crime in which they released surveillance footage from a retail store featuring Marcelin. In it, Marcelin is seen utilizing a motorized wheelchair with what appears to be a severed human leg on the seat, visible when Marcelin stands from the chair to look at products.

During the conference, Kings County District Attorney Eric Gonzalez introduced Marcelin as a “female” and stated he was “born a male, but prefers the pronoun ‘miss.’” Gonzalez uses feminine pronouns to refer to Marcelin throughout, and often refers to him as a “female person of interest.”
Leyden’s body was found in pieces scattered across the neighborhood, with parts being found on two separate days. Her leg was found on March 7, poking out of a discarded tire, and her headless torso was found in a shopping cart blocks away on March 9, along with a number of electric saws.
During court proceedings, one witness testified to having come across the shopping cart while on his way home to Brooklyn from a night out. After deciding to take it with him, he peered into a plastic shopping bag that had been placed inside the cart. Ramon Lopez told jurors that within the bag, he “found a body.” Lopez said he called the police immediately.
Prosecutors told the court that inside the bag were some of Leyden’s remains. Surveillance footage showed Marcelin pushing the shopping cart the day before it was discovered.

The jury swiftly convicted Marcelin after just one hour of deliberations, reports The New York Times. While the outlet had previously referred to Marcelin as a woman, their most recent article regarding his conviction refers to him as a man repeatedly, and states that “at the start of his trial last month, Mr. Marcelin told the court that he identifies as a man.”
On July 30, 2022, The New York Times released a lengthy sympathetic profile on Marcelin and his crimes, utilizing “she/her” pronouns throughout. The article insisted “transgender people are far more likely to become victims of violence, not perpetrators,” and implied that Marcelin’s history of violence against women was a result of his internal “gender identity” conflict.
As previously revealed by Reduxx, Marcelin had known the victim and was interacting with her on Facebook. Reports from last week’s trial confirm that Marcelin had met his latest victim after being granted access to a homeless shelter for women. When they met, Leyden was a resident of the Sage Center at Stonewall House, an LGBTQ residence in Brooklyn that also houses homeless seniors.
While it is unclear exactly when Marcelin and Leyden first began to interact, one of his many Facebook profiles reveals a communication with the victim dated 2019, just after he was released from the upstate Cayuga Correctional facility on the provision of lifetime parole.

It was at this time that both Marcelin and Leyden were seeking housing. Leyden, who was reportedly struggling with declining mental health and drug addiction, eventually secured an apartment within the Stonewall House.
Marcelin used Leyden’s own photo as his own profile image on more than one Facebook account and had repeatedly posted her picture to his Facebook pages. In October 2021, just months before Leyden was murdered, Marcelin responded to her with the comment, “Love personified.”

Yet a few comments made from Leyden’s Facebook account suggest that the feeling was far from mutual.
In November 2020, Marcelin uploaded a photo of a young blond woman as his main profile photo, the identity of whom is unknown. Beneath the photo, Leyden commented: “That is not a picture of Marceline Harvey… [he] is nice but crazy… Marcaline [sic] is a freak.”
On one Facebook account, Marcelin referred to himself as “the Queen of Loisaida,” an area in Manhattan.
The New York serial killer arrested in March for dismembering a woman had been granted entry to a women's shelter, where he met with his victim and began to obsess over her on Facebook.
— REDUXX (@reduxx) July 31, 2022
Harvey Marcelin, 84, identifies as a transgender lesbian.https://t.co/MUjR0clOl3
In December 2022, just months after Marcelin’s arrest, former social worker at a Manhattan senior shelter filed a lawsuit against her ex-employer, claiming she lost her job after she warned her bosses that the convicted serial killer had made threats against her life while she worked at the facility.
Monica Archer was let go from her position at George Daly House, a short-term housing alternative for elderly residents in Alphabet City, even after convicted serial killer Marcelin was charged with the brutal slaying and dismemberment of Leyden.
According to an exclusive published in The New York Post, Marcelin “made constant threats to kill” Archer and other personnel, and was permitted to keep a gun on the premises.
Archer had suggested to her supervisors that Marcelin be transferred to a facility specializing in mental health disorders, but was ignored. She had also recommended Marcelin be placed in an “appropriate setting for the serial killer who has issues that I can’t address.”
But Archer says that management continued to allow Marcelin to reside at the shelter, despite “knowing that [he] had been accused of and convicted of several murders, allegedly possessed a gun, and regularly threatened to kill staff members.”
A former social worker at a New York senior shelter is alleging she was fired after raising concerns about a transgender serial killer who had been granted access to the facility.
— REDUXX (@reduxx) December 7, 2022
Harvey Marcelin was arrested for the murder of a third woman shortly after.https://t.co/BkFONXlP6U
Marcelin had also reportedly begun following Archer after she left work for the evening, leaving the social worker so frightened that she began using alternative routes to commute after work.
Despite Marcelin’s “erratic” and “dangerous” behavior, he was released from the senior care shelter to live independently. Yet Archer remained troubled by his behavior and filed a complaint against the facility with the US Occupational Safety and Health Administration for exposing her to risk.
She alleges that management then retaliated against her, putting her on janitorial duty and refusing to let her work remotely. Two months after Marcelin was taken into custody, Archer alleges she was fired for insubordination, a move she says was punishment for raising the alarm in the first place.
Archer was not the only woman to raise concerns about Marcelin prior to the murder of Susan Leyden.

In July, a nurse who worked intake for a shelter in the Bronx spoke to The New York Times and revealed she had great concerns about Marcelin being allowed access to the women’s section of the facility.
Anne Brennan questioned whether Marcelin should be permitted to reside in the women’s area of the shelter, but was told by her supervisors to grant Marcelin entry.
“Apparently his feelings and identity were far more important than all the other women that were terrified of him,” she said.
Prior to the murder of Susan Leyden, Marcelin was well-known to police, having been convicted in the brutal deaths of two other women on two separate occasions.
In 1963, Marcelin was arrested for shooting his then-girlfriend Jacqueline Bonds three times inside their Manhattan apartment. He was sentenced to 20 years to life and was paroled in 1984. After his release, he went on to stab another female sexual partner to death, stuffing her corpse in a garbage bag and then dumping it on the street near Central Park.
Marcelin was arrested in 1986 for the second murder, but was once again released on parole in 2019. At the time, he told a parole officer that he had “a problem with women.”
Prior to the murders, Marcelin was accused of attempted rape when he was just 14 years-old; the allegation was made by a girl aged 8.

A 1963 psychiatric examination conducted by three unnamed doctors at Bellevue Psychiatric Hospital concluded Marcelin had “schizoid personality with sociopathic features” but was not deemed criminally insane nor psychotic. In contrast, a previous hospital record from 1962 suggested he may have had “delusional grandiosity,” “suggestions of chronic schizophrenia” and “paranoid reaction personality.”
Curiously, Bellevue Psychiatric Hospital was where the term “transgender” was coined. Dr. John F. Oliven was employed at the psychiatric institution where Marcelin would become a patient, and in his 1965 manual for psychiatrists, Sexual Hygiene and Pathology, Oliven wrote that in regards to male “transgender” patients, “sexuality is not a major factor in primary transvestism,” thereby re-framing the fetish as a matter of identity rather than as a paraphilia. The section in the manual which focuses on transsexualism and transgenderism solely discusses male inclinations and behaviors, and does not acknowledge it as a female phenomenon.
Marcelin began identifying as a woman while at Auburn State Prison for his second slaying, and started taking Premarin, a type of estrogen intended for post-menopausal women, after meeting trans-identified male inmate at the facility. The killer appears to treat his “male” and “female” personas as two separate entities. In an interview he gave to The New York Post in 2022, Marcelin claimed it was his “male” persona that was responsible for his history of crime.
“Harvey’s not a good guy, he’s a tough guy,” Marcelin said, “Marceline’s nice and gentle and loving, you know, lots of laughter, fun to be with. She’s the one who’s perfectly normal.”
Marcelin described his male “side” as a “pimp” and blamed his female victims for inciting him to violence. “I tell them — there’s a side of me you don’t want to see… but they don’t listen,” he told The New York Post.
Due to Marcelin’s self-identification as a woman, he was quietly placed in a women’s housing unit at Rikers Island while awaiting trial. For the past four years, Marcelin had been held at the Rose M. Singer Center, but he is currently being held at the Bellevue Hospital Outposted Therapeutic Housing Units, likely due to his failing health and advanced age.
Despite having an erratic “gender identity” that has changed multiple times, Marcelin has been recorded by the New York City Department of Corrections as a “female” inmate.
Grieving mother dies in Swiss assisted suicide clinic

On April 24, a healthy 56-year-old woman died by suicide at the Pegasos clinic in Basel, Switzerland. Wendy Duffy, a former care worker from the West Midlands, U.K., was still grieving the loss of 23-year-old son Marcus, who died in 2022 after tragically choking to death when he was asleep after eating a sandwich. Duffy had found him and attempted to perform CPR and was profoundly traumatized by the experience and his subsequent death.
There are two ways to respond to Duffy’s suicide. The first is to recognize that a tragedy has been added to a tragedy; a death to a death. Duffy did not need to die. She desperately needed help to cope with her grief and loss. The second is the reaction of the staff at the Swiss suicide clinic, which affirmed her suicidal ideation as a “sane suicide” and stated that her death was business as usual. Duffy paid the clinic £10,000 for her death.
“I can confirm that Wendy Duffy, at her own request, was assisted to die on 24 April and that the procedure was completed without incident and in full compliance with her wishes,” Pegasos founder Ruedi Habegger told the Daily Mail. “I can also confirm that neither we nor any of the professional staff assessing her mental capacity had any doubt as to her intention, understanding and independence of both thought and action. In historical terms, at English law, hers was a case of ‘sane suicide.’”
“Sane suicide” is a medieval legal term – not a statutory definition – that referred to someone committing suicide in full, deliberate knowledge of what they were doing.
According to the Daily Mail, Duffy had previously informed her family of her plans, including her two brothers and four sisters. “I will call them when I get to Switzerland,” she said. “It will be a hard call where I’ll say goodbye and thank them. But they will get it. They know. My life, my choice. I wish this was available in the U.K., then I wouldn’t have to go to Switzerland at all.”
It is that last remark – that she wished suicide had been easily available in the U.K. – that media outlets promptly fixated on. As the Guardian noted on the day of her death:
The case comes as assisted dying legislation in England and Wales, branded “hopelessly flawed” by opponents, ran out of time to be passed by parliament, though the circumstances of Duffy’s death would not have been within the scope of any proposed legislation in the U.K. Pegasos Swiss Association, a nonprofit organisation, was founded by Habegger, a right-to-die activist, in 2019.
Note that even though the proposed assisted suicide bills in England and Wales and Scotland would not have permitted Duffy to commit suicide-by-doctor in her hometown, her death in a Swiss suicide clinic is immediately framed as a lack of access at home. Duffy wanted to commit suicide but was forced to travel for it. The implication is clear, if not explicit. Duffy’s case “comes” as the U.K. rejects assisted suicide; her dying wish was that it was “available in the U.K.”
In fact, in the first iteration of the Guardian’s report, they did not even note that she would not have been able to commit suicide at home if the law had passed, prompting an amendment on April 27 “to add additional context stating that the circumstances in the case of Wendy Duffy would not have been within the scope of any proposed U.K. legislation on assisted dying.”
The Guardian did end its report, however, by offering up a suggestive case study that highlights the possibilities of a new and expanded suicide regime in the U.K. in the future:
In 2024, a 29-year-old Dutch woman was granted her request for assisted dying on the grounds of unbearable mental suffering. Zoraya ter Beek received the final approval for assisted dying after a 3 1/2-year process under a law passed in the Netherlands in 2002.
Euthanasia groups have been notably silent about Duffy’s death, perhaps recognizing that her suicide represents precisely the sort of “slippery slope” case that turned voters against the proposed legislation at Westminster and Stormont this year. But there is no doubt that they would have supported her, if they thought the public would let them get away with it.
Euthanasia activists were eager to pass a law – any law – because once euthanasia and assisted suicide were legalized in principle, they could set to work expanding the regime in practice. Those who voted against assisted suicide saw Canada as a cautionary tale. Euthanasia activists see it as the model to follow.



