Spaniards voted in a potentially close-run general election on Sunday that could see Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez’s governing Socialists lose power and return power to the center-right People’s Party.
Sánchez called the election early after the left took a drubbing in local elections in May, but his gamble to wrong-foot his opponents could backfire.
Opinion polls showed the election was likely to produce a win for Alberto Núñez Feijóo’s center-right People’s Party, but to form a government, it may need to partner with Santiago Abascal’s Vox.
Voting closed at 8 p.m. (1800 GMT) when voter surveys conducted via phone calls over the past week will be released. All ballots are expected to be counted by midnight, confirming the party with the most votes.
Both the left and right blocs have the potential to form coalitions, which will need at least 176 seats in the 350-seat lower house of Congress. A new parliament must be constituted by August 17, but negotiations between parties to form a government can go on for months.
An analysis of opinion poll data by Spain’s El País newspaper on July 19, when polling ended, projected a 55% chance of a PP/Vox coalition, a 15% chance of Sánchez staying in power with a patchwork leftist coalition, and a 23% chance of a hung parliament and a repeat election.
As Sánchez went to vote in Madrid, he was greeted by one small group of people shouting “liar” and a similar-sized group shouting “prime minister”. He told reporters he had “good feelings” about the election outcome.
The prime minister’s minority government is currently in coalition with the far-left Unidos Podemos, which is running in Sunday’s election under the Sumar platform.
As of the writing of this article (GMT 2045), with 88.8%, the right-wing Vox party was poised to take the third place in Sunday’s vote, and it will likely become a coalition partner of the People’s Party.
Despite the significant loss of support and therefore number of seats (about 20 depending, on the final results; Vox won 52 seats in the previous election), Vox will play a crucial role in the formation of a lasting coalition with the PP. Both parties can count on majority support in the Congress of Deputies.
As the largest party’s leader, Alberto Núñez Feijóo can now be expected to be requested by King Felipe VI to become the Prime Minister and attempt to form a government. His cabinet will need to secure a vote of confidence in the Congress of Deputies to start its work.
In the initial comments, Spanish political analysts point to the deepening polarization and the phenomenon of bipartisanship in Spain.
According to the exit poll, the separatist parties from Catalonia, the Republican Left of Catalonia (ERC), and Together for Catalonia (Junts) will also enter the Congress with nine deputies each. Additionally, the Basque separatist parties EH Bildu and the Basque Nationalist Party (PNV) secured six and five seats, respectively.