A report released on Monday, February 12th, just in time for the start of the Munich Security Conference on Friday, reveals that Russia is no longer perceived as the biggest security threat by people living in the largest economies in the world, while issues like mass migration, terrorism, climate change, and cyber attacks rank high on the list of perceived threats.
While the threat posed by Russia—which invaded Ukraine almost two years ago—was cited as the top concern in surveys conducted in the previous two years, it has dropped to fourth place in the latest Munich Security Index. The index assesses answers given by people in the so-called G7 countries—Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States—as well as Brazil, China, India, and South Africa.
“Meanwhile, perceptions of nontraditional risks remain high. People around the world continue to be most concerned about environmental threats, while risk perceptions of mass migration as a result of war or climate change, radical Islamic terrorism, and organized crime have heightened,” the report writes. It adds: “While Russia was still the top risk for five G7 countries last year, only the citizens of the UK and Japan still consider it so. German citizens now only see Russia as the seventh greatest concern and Italians see it as the 12th.”
Perceptions in Europe have indeed changed. As France, Germany, Italy—and other Western European countries—grapple with a continuous tide of mass immigration and the terrorism threats linked to migration, the two topics are now the main concern for both French and German citizens, and only climate change and extreme weather conditions trump migration in Italy.
Radical Islamic terrorism climbed six places to become the most concerning threat to the French. The revelations coincide with another report which states that the ever-present insecurity in France, including terrorism and mass protests, is seriously damaging the country’s international image.
Among the countries surveyed, Germany now has the highest level of concern about mass migration, which is not surprising, given that the current and previous governments failed to curb the number of arrivals from mainly North African and Middle Eastern countries. The mismanagement of the migration crisis has elevated the anti-globalist opposition party Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) into second place in national opinion polls.
The threat of Iran, a country that is orchestrating attacks on Israel and Western interests across the Middle East, has also risen significantly in the risk index among the G7 countries. Interestingly enough, for citizens in the U.S. and China, cyberattacks now rank as the top concern, while the two countries perceive each other as the third biggest security risk.
Meanwhile, almost all indicators related to Russia’s war on Ukraine have fallen, including the use of nuclear weapons by an aggressor and energy supply disruptions. This could be a worrying sign for Ukraine which has failed to make any progress in its counteroffensive against Russia, as there seems to be an increasing lack of interest from the United States and Europe in continuing to fund Ukraine.
A separate report on the global security situation, the Munich Security Report paints a very bleak picture of the world, with geopolitical rivalry increasing in all four corners of the earth, coupled with a global economic slowdown, as many states become disillusioned with the current international order. Instead of seeking cooperation and entering win-win situations, major political actors are engaging in lose-lose affairs. The report mentions:
- Russia and Europe as both suffering the consequences of the war in Ukraine;
- the Indo-Pacific, where “Beijing is trying to convert East Asia into its exclusive sphere of influence,” while reduced economic cooperation with China hurts both Beijing and its neighbours;
- the Middle East where everyone is losing from the escalation of violence.
Organised since 1963, the Munich Security Conference is one of the most well-known forums for international security policy decision-makers. Its chair, Christoph Heusgen, said on Monday that the Israel-Hamas war, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and conflicts in the Horn of Africa will dominate the three-day conference, which will be attended by United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris, China’s top diplomat Wang Yi, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, Israeli President Isaac Herzog, Palestinian Prime Minister Mohammad Shtayyeh and the government chiefs of Lebanon, Qatar, and Iraq.