Photo: Sandro Halank, Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons
Friedrich Merz, CDU leader and Germany’s incoming chancellor, issued a stark warning on April 28th about the state of democracy in his country. He declared that “trust in our democratic system is damaged like never before in our post-war history.” Speaking in Berlin at the event to ratify the new coalition agreement, Merz painted a bleak picture, saying that “the pillars we have relied on for decades are now faltering around us.”
The most recent survey on trust in democracy within the European Union, Flash Eurobarometer 550, conducted between June 25th and July 2nd, 2024, shows that 55% of EU citizens have confidence in democracy remaining strong in the EU over the next five years, while 41% expressed some level of distrust. In other words, four out of ten Europeans have no trust not in democracy as such, but rather European institutions. Establishment political leaders tend not to make this distinction, preferring to avoid uncomfortable questions.
The CDU leader did not hesitate to point to multiple threats: an imperialist war in Eastern Europe—a reference to Russia—but also growing domestic discontent, with citizens described as “frightened, insecure, and even radicalized.” Merz warned that Germany faces real risks of sabotage and disinformation campaigns orchestrated from Moscow, calling for a “determined defense of our democracy against those who seek to divide Europe.”
However, while paying lip service to the defense of Europe and the need for leadership, Merz has chosen a path that some observers label pragmatic, but many see as a sign of weakness: a coalition pact with the Social Democratic Party (SPD). After the February 23rd elections, in which the AfD (Alternative für Deutschland) surged to become the second-largest political force with over 20% of the vote, Merz concluded an agreement with CDU’s traditional adversaries to form a “grand coalition” that should see him elected chancellor on May 6th.
It is worth noting that according to the latest opinion polls, AfD has now overtaken the CDU.
Pacts to save Europe … or to save power?
Merz has justified the agreement as a necessary evil to preserve national stability and prevent the further rise of political extremes. “This is not the time for euphoria,” he told his supporters, asserting that Germany must once again “assume leadership responsibility” within the European Union. His stated priorities include increasing defense spending, modernizing infrastructure, and implementing stimulus measures for a weakened economy.
His government, which will include figures like Johann Wadephul, a former soldier and strong supporter of Ukraine, promises to strengthen the Atlantic alliance. However, Merz warned that with Donald Trump’s return to the U.S. presidency, “we can no longer automatically rely on the transatlantic relationship.” This has reinforced the CDU narrative of a more autonomous Europe, although the lack of specifics regarding his European defense proposals raises doubts among more critical sectors.
The CDU-SPD coalition represents an attempt to avoid political chaos, but at the same time it dilutes the conservative profile that many voters had hoped for following Merz’s electoral victory. Rather than a clear change of direction, Germany seems to be heading towards a nuanced continuity, where centrist consensus prevails over a recovery of firm values.
However, Merz himself admitted that if the new government fails to meet the demands of the majority of voters, Germany could end up in a situation where “perhaps at some point we are no longer able to govern.” This admission highlights the fragility of the balance achieved. Both within the AfD and other sectors, there is growing hope for early elections by 2027.