The longtime military policy advisor to NATO, Helmut W. Ganser sees the chance of an early end to the war in winter, especially for military reasons. With this, Ganser explicitly contradicted NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg, who has spoken out against peace negotiations.
Ganser is a retired brigadier general and was, among other things, deputy head of the military policy department in the Federal Ministry of Defense and military policy advisor to the German Permanent Representative to NATO. Born in 1948, he worked in the command staff of the German armed forces from 1992.
He argued for a cessation of hostilities: “Military-political reason speaks for an early end to this costly war”. A victory for Kiev is unrealistic, he said After Moscow’s initial failures in Ukraine, some observers “overreacted” and overestimated Ukraine’s chances of victory.
Militarily, there is currently a stalemate situation, while at the same time the ammunition consumption on both sides is exceptionally high.
The West has reached its limits in this war since their ammunition depots are being depleted. This applies in particular to Germany. Ganser was quoted in the German ipg-journal for international politics.
Counter-offensives by Kiev only result in losses and are unsuccessful
Russia currently occupies well under 20 percent of Ukraine’s territory. After considerable losses of terrain and the retreat to the east bank of the Dnieper, the Russian army “substantially shortened and consolidated the front”.
“Attempts at further extensive counter-offensives by Kiev […] are likely not only to result in extremely heavy losses, but will also be to no avail,” according to Ganser.
He added that the wide Dnieper river posed “a significant barrier to possible counter-attack operations by Ukrainian forces in the southern part of the front”.
High ammo consumption
At the moment there is a stalemate situation, but there is a risk of a longer war of attrition and position, with occasional thrusts and counter-thrusts. At the same time, the consumption of ammunition on both sides is unusually high. The West is also reaching its limits here, Ganser warned.
“The western side can no longer intervene in the blocked stocks of the ammunition depots of their armed forces and deliver unlimited supplies. […] Ammunition supplies for the M777 howitzers and the long-range HIMARS rocket launchers are also reaching their limits in the US,” said the psychologist and political scientist.
Be sure to take fears of nuclear escalation seriously
The danger of a nuclear escalation also speaks in favor of peace negotiations. Although this is not desired by either side, the risk still exists. “One cannot yet speak of nuclear detente,” he underscored. US President Joe Biden had also warned of a nuclear war and has used the term “Armageddon”.
Peace talks should therefore take place as soon as possible, albeit behind closed doors. “To present warnings of a nuclear escalation as exaggerated fears is irresponsible,” Ganser said.
The solution to this lies with Moscow and Washington, the two actual players. Without Western support, Kiev would have lost the war long ago. “On the geopolitical level, this is a Russian-American conflict.”
The war is very costly for Ukraine
The Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff at the Pentagon, General Mark Milley, has also made a similar statement: Russia and Ukraine must mutually recognize “that a military victory is not achievable and that the winter months should be used for negotiations”.
But there are many critics of this proposal, which Ganser contradicted. “The argument that is heard again and again that the West must bring the Russian military to its knees with the help of Ukraine, because otherwise Putin will be the next to attack the NATO East Europeans, is simply a weak analysis.” After this war of attrition, Russia will first have to deal with military reform. In addition, NATO is building up forces on its eastern flank.
“The widespread counter-argument, including from NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, that Moscow is only interested in an operational pause in order to attack again in the spring, may be correct. But even the Ukrainian army, with Western help, would use a ceasefire to bolster its defensive and counterattack capabilities.”
https://freewestmedia.com/2022/12/30/top-german-general-calls-for-an-end-to-ukraine-war/