With parliamentary elections in Austria barely more than a month away, it seems as if no one can stop the march of the opposition Freedom Party of Austria (FPÖ), which is campaigning on a hard anti-immigration platform.
The latest polls suggest that the party has a 10 percentage point lead over its two main rivals, the governing centre-right Austrian People’s Party (ÖVP) and the opposition Social Democrats (SPÖ). According to a survey by INSA, FPÖ is projected to win 31% of the votes on September 29th, SPÖ 21%, and ÖVP—which has governed the country since 2017, first in a coalition with FPÖ, and then the Greens—19%.
This means that, for the first time, neither of the two mainstream parties—ÖVP and SPÖ—who have taken turns ruling the country since the end of World War II, is projected to win. If the forecasts are correct, FPÖ will gain its largest share of the votes since the election in 1999, when it received 27%.
The projection shows a steep downward spiral for the centre-right People’s Party, which had an election result of 37.5% in 2019. The Social Democrats would be unchanged, matching the 21% of the votes five years ago. Meanwhile, FPÖ—which finished third in 2019 with 16%—is set to almost double its vote share.
Other parties that are likely to enter the parliament at the next elections are the Greens (9%), the liberal NEOS party (8%), and the satirical Beer Party (7%)—founded 10 years ago by the frontman of a Viennese punk rock band.
Political analysts told the daily Kurier that the FPÖ will be difficult to catch, since the focus of the campaign has shifted from the problems of inflation and climate change to terrorism and migration, following a recently foiled terrorist attack at a Taylor Swift concert in Vienna.
Despite attempts by ÖVP Chancellor Karl Nehammer to seem tough on migration, promising to slash migrant benefits if he is reelected, voters most likely see FPÖ as a better alternative for dealing with illegal migration.
The Freedom Party has vowed to immediately suspend asylum applications, put in place a real border protection system, enable pushbacks, consistently deport failed asylum seekers, give benefits in kind instead of cash handouts to accepted asylum seekers, and generally make Austria a less attractive destination country for illegal and economic migrants.
FPÖ’s only real chance of coming to power is if it forms a coalition with the ÖVP, as other parties have no intention of cooperating with the strongly anti-globalist and anti-immigration party. However, an analysis by Kurier suggests that even if a right-wing coalition were to be established, FPÖ would probably have to give up some of its hard-line positions. According to a recent survey, an FPÖ-ÖVP government has the highest approval rating among voters (28%), with a three-party government between ÖVP, the Social Democrats, and the Greens next in line (23%).
Asked in an interview about his preferred choice for a coalition partner, FPÖ leader Herbert Kickl said “there is more common ground with the ÖVP,” but he didn’t rule out forming a coalition with the Social Democrats if “reasonable forces” prevail within the party.