Poles vote this Sunday, June 1st, for their next president in what is widely seen as a watershed election. The two options they are being presented with could hardly contrast more starkly.
On the one hand, a victory for the liberal pro-EU Rafał Trzaskowski would consolidate the European Union’s anti-nation agenda in Poland—or, as former MEP Jacek Saryusz-Wolski this week told europeanconservative.com, would “give the government a Brussels-sanctioned license to dismantle democracy.”
A win for PiS-backed conservative historian Karol Nawrocki would, however, represent a win for sovereigntists, laying the groundwork for policies that prioritise border control, defence of the family and a rejection of EU-imposed structural reforms.
Much will depend on how the supporters of Konfederacja candidate Sławomir Mentzen, who placed third in the first round, will vote, as they could easily decide the outcome in one or the other presidential hopeful’s favour.
Hopes of a Nawrocki victory have been expressed at this week’s CPAC Hungary conference, including by Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, who complained that Donald Tusk’s government is currently trampling over Poland’s constitution, with the help of Brussels.
The election’s first round took place earlier this month and ended with a thin vote margin. Trzaskowski came away with 31% of the vote while Nawrocki secured 29%.
Western media said on Friday, May 30th that the likely result is too close to call, with poll differences falling within the margin of error. Trzaskowski had led in the polls for much of the campaign, but more recent surveys have put the pair neck and neck, if not pinning Nawrocki ever so slightly ahead.
Poland, OGB poll:
— Europe Elects (@EuropeElects) May 30, 2025
Presidential run-off election
Nawrocki (PiS-ECR): 51%
Trzaskowski (PO-EPP): 49%
+/- vs. 22-24 May 2025
Fieldwork: 28-29 May 2025
Sample size: 1,000
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