In a fortnight, elections will be held for the presidency of the right-wing Les Républicains (LR) party. The stakes are high. At a time when French politics resembles a field of ruins, the man who manages to take the reins of what was once the leading party of the French Right can dream of winning the next presidential election, taking advantage of the collapse of Macronism and the legal setbacks of the Rassemblement National (RN). However, the challenge is daunting: how to convince an electorate jaded by decades of political inefficiency and compromises with the establishment?
With two weeks to go before the vote, the party claims just over 115,000 members—a solid base for the elected president to enjoy a minimum of legitimacy. Two men—with different strengths and backgrounds—are vying for the position.
Bruno Retailleau has the prestige of having been the leader of Les Républicains senators. Now Minister of the Interior, he is working tirelessly to try to reverse the lax migration policy that has prevailed in France for decades and is not afraid to adopt positions previously held exclusively by the RN.
Laurent Wauquiez is a well-established local figure but has never really managed to break through at the national level. He has already served in several right-wing governments in the past, but has not left a lasting impression. As head of the Rhône-Alpes region, he enjoys considerable esteem, but this does not extend beyond the borders of his stronghold. His far-fetched proposal a few weeks ago to send OQTF (people with an obligation to leave French territory) to the island of Saint-Pierre-et-Miquelon was met with criticism and sarcasm, first and foremost from Retailleau. Internally, however, Wauquiez says he is very confident of his chances of success: he is playing the independence card because, unlike his rival, he is not part of a government alongside Macronists.
According to the Odoxa polling institute, “in the opinion polls, the match is completely over, in favour of the interior minister.” Among party members, the balance is more complex to analyse.
Bruno Retailleau is also the favourite of the moderate right-wing media, such as Valeurs Actuelles, which recently ran the headline “What if it were him?” and Le Figaro. But this popularity is deceptive: he has a personality that inspires real enthusiasm only among a handful of notables attached to the respectability of a party that is the heir to Gaullism but which for decades has been drifting gently from the right towards a soft and chewy centre with no real energy.
In 2007, Sarkozy succeeded in hijacking the national right-wing electorate with a firm speech to come to power. This electorate was then betrayed by the policy of opening up to the left.
Today, caution is the order of the day: Retailleau and Wauquiez are the symbolic heirs of Sarkozy. Even if times have changed and the state of the country has deteriorated, calling for ever more powerful remedies, their methods remain the same, and right-wing voters are now wary of superficial firmness. Neither is sending a clear signal about their willingness to finally break the cordon sanitaire that is preventing any political implementation of a common programme for the right—as is happening in Austria and Germany.
At the national level, the outlook is far from bright: the minister of the interior seems unable at this stage to qualify for the second round of the presidential election, as he would only garner 9.5% to 10% of the vote.
The minister’s bombastic statements and his attempts to flex his muscles on sensitive issues that we have reported on—state medical aid, the Franco-Algerian diplomatic conflict—have so far failed to produce any truly convincing results. By what miracle could he manage to expand the party’s base of 7 to 9% of die-hard supporters, who remain loyal from election to election, without ever convincing other French people that, in the current crisis, there is any point in trying to entrust him with power once again?
The reality of the presidential election to be held in spring 2027 is cruel: even if Retailleau’s and Wauquiez’s party manages to make a spectacular comeback, it seems totally illusory that it will qualify for the second round.
And yet, in politics, anything is possible, because the current configuration of French political life could hold many surprises. The RN is entering the race with the serious handicap of Marine Le Pen’s conviction. The road ahead is still long and fraught with obstacles. The appeal process launched by Le Pen must be completed and ruled in her favour: nothing is certain. And even under these conditions, the presidential campaign will have begun without her. As for Jordan Bardella, he has a certain appeal, but it is far from sufficient to hope to win the presidential election, which will be difficult and filled with challenges. In this battle, LR’s experience in government remains an asset among a significant portion of the electorate who, fed on media warnings about the risks to democracy, are hesitant to take the plunge and elect an RN president.
https://europeanconservative.com/articles/analysis/in-pursuit-of-the-lost-right-winger/