Since the appointment of the new French government headed by former European Commissioner Michel Barnier, the press has been insisting on a possible ‘right turn,’ or at the very least a rightward ‘tilt’ of Emmanuel Macron’s administration. What is the reality?
The presence of a few right-wing figures on the team should give us no illusions.
The government is severely constrained, and any initiative that is judged to be outside the canons of centrist political correctness will be immediately pilloried.
Pressure from the Left on the new team began even before the government was formed. The Les Républicains (LR) party, from which Michel Barnier historically hails, may well be crowing about its unexpected return to favour—it scored less than 5% in the last presidential elections, came 4th in the legislative elections, but nonetheless provided a dozen ministers—but it is under observation.
Laurence Garnier, a member of the LR party and the new Secretary of State for Consumer Affairs, has had to bear the brunt of this hidden censure. She was anticipated to take up the post of Minister for the Family, but in the end had to make do with a much more modest portfolio. Emmanuel Macron even made it known that he did not want her in the government. This was due to her vote against enshrining abortion in the constitution a few weeks ago, as well as her stance against gay marriage, medically assisted procreation (PMA) for women, and the ban on conversion therapies.
The left-wing newspaper Libération has launched a true witch hunt. On its front page, the paper denounced “the reactionary pact” and went looking into the past of members of the government to award them diplômes d’infréquentabilité—‘certifications of non-reliability.’ Patrick Hetzel, Minister for Higher Education, and Othman Nasrou—though loyal to the very centrist Valérie Pécresse—have been condemned for having, one or more times in their careers, expressed conservative views in favour of the family or a reasoned vision of bioethics.
But what is more serious is the pressure that the Left intends to exert from outside, now that the team is in place, to ensure the government’s ideological rectitude. Left-wing commentators on X are entertaining the fantasy of a resurgence of reactionary policies and worrying that societal ‘rights’—abortion, gay marriage, LGBT rights—might be called into question even though there has never been any question of this and, from our humble point of view, we can even deplore the timidity of the new ministers on these crucial issues. Planned Parenthood says it is “worried.” Former Prime Minister Gabriel Attal sent a very clear message to Michel Barnier: he took the liberty of asking for guarantees that there would be “no backtracking on PMA, abortion, or minority rights.” He said he was “personally offended” by the past positions of certain ministers. He declared:
I will ask the Prime Minister to state clearly in his general policy statement that there will be no going back on PMA, the right to abortion, LGBT rights
as if he intended to control a government over which, although a former prime minister himself, he is supposed to have no control.
Societal issues usually provide an opportunity for highly inflammatory ideological conflicts. But security policy is no exception. The terrible case of the death of young Philippine gave Interior Minister Bruno Retailleau, also a member of LR, the opportunity to make some firm statements about the need to control French migration policy. Socialist Justice Minister Didier Migaud, who was lying in wait, was quick to defuse these announcements by explaining that there was no problem with laxity in the judiciary in France. The tone has been set: if Retailleau wants to pursue a firm policy in the coming weeks—we dare speak in months, given the precarious balance of this government—he will find in the person of his collaborator an adversary determined to change nothing. The issues of OQTF (obligation to leave French territory) and the enforcement of sentencing are shared between three ministries: the Interior, Justice, and also Foreign Affairs, since this ministry is responsible for negotiating consular passes for foreign nationals slated for deportation. The Interior Minister must realise that he can expect nothing from either of his supposed collaborators.
Despite appearances, and despite the boasts once made by supporters of the LR party, such as the newspaper Le Figaro, which ran the headline “The Right is back,” deep-seated hostility to the Right, its programme, and its values, remains the rule at the top of the French state. The latest evidence of this can be found in the statements by Antoine Armand, the Minister for the Economy, who explained on Tuesday September 24th that “the RN is not part of the Republican arc” and that he therefore had no intention of discussing matters with its representatives—unlike the far-left party La France Insoumise, which would be part of it. These comments caused a small earthquake, as if Armand seemed to forget that the government team to which he belongs can only maintain itself with the goodwill of the RN. The prime minister had to firmly remind his colleague of the rules and call Marine Le Pen on the phone to try to put out the fire.
This is the flip side of the ‘right-wing government’ that some observers of French political life have been a little too quick to sell in the press. In truth, the situation is explosive, and the Left, allied with the centre, has no intention whatsoever of leaving the slightest room for manoeuvre to the Right—which, however, holds the keys to keeping them in power. The horizon for the Barnier government is certainly bleak, and its life expectancy limited.