Despite French National Rally (RN) de facto leader Marine Le Pen’s recent conviction, the party has remained a potent force, with its President Jordan Bardella performing strongly in recent polls.
Data published on April 5 from the polling institute Elabe placed RN in first position for the 2027 French presidential election, with both Le Pen and Bardella leading the field.
Should Bardella replace Le Pen as the party’s election candidate, he was projected to receive between 31 per cent and 35.5 per cent of the vote in the first round.
Even with Le Pen running, RN continued to hold a strong lead, signalling that the party was well-positioned for the election.
Bernard Sananès, President of Elabe, though, cautioned that RN should remain vigilant.
“The RN base is solid, but this doesn’t account for the potential impact of Le Pen’s legal challenges on a presidential runoff. Both Le Pen and Bardella must be strategic in their approach,” he remarked on April 5.
Le Pen has appealed her conviction, with a retrial scheduled for the first half of 2026.
The Elabe poll showed that, in the race for second place, candidates from the Macronist camp lagged behind.
Former prime minister Edouard Philippe performed the best, securing between 20.5 per cent and 24 per cent of the vote, while another former prime minister, Gabriel Attal, who has yet to officially announce his candidacy, garnered 18 per cent.
Among right-wing contenders, current interior minister Bruno Retailleau led with 8-10 per cent.
Additionally, a separate poll published on April 1 for RTL radio network revealed that Le Pen’s 2022 voters would remain loyal to RN even without her taking part in the election.
Between 35 per cent and 36 per cent of French voters would support Bardella in the first round, should he replace Le Pen in 2027.
Notably, 93 per cent of Le Pen’s 2022 supporters would back Bardella over the Conservative Les Republicans party President Laurent Wauquiez in a head-to-head contest. That figure dropped slightly to 89 per cent when facing Bruno Retailleau.
As the RN has navigated the political landscape ahead of 2027, its strategic positioning and handling of ongoing legal challenges were likely to play a pivotal role in shaping the race.
The two latest polls confirmed the RN’s growing influence on the French political scene and underscored the party’s solid support base. As early as December 2024, it was already leading the presidential race with Le Pen at the forefront.
In 2022, current French President Emmanuel Macron won the first round of the election then with 27.9 per cent of the vote, ahead of Le Pen on 23.2 per cent.