New polls in France showed National Rally (RN) President Jordan Bardella gaining traction, outperforming even his political mentor and de facto party leader Marine Le Pen.
While the findings were broadly positive for RN with the French presidential elections still two years away, Bardella’s rising popularity could stir tensions within the party, especially as Le Pen — long positioned as its frontrunner — has been barred from standing by a court ruling.
Both Le Pen and Bardella consistently scored between 32 per cent and 35 per cent in first-round voting intentions across multiple scenarios.
Bardella, just 29 years old, has emerged as a formidable second-round contender, according to the new IFOP survey released on May 5.
Some other polls even suggested he could win by a significant margin against centrist figures such as former prime minister and Horizons party founder Édouard Philippe or fellow former PM Gabriel Attal of the Renaissance party.
In head-to-head matchups, Bardella was projected to defeat Attal (52 per cent to 48 per cent) and Republicans party interior minister Bruno Retailleau (53 per cent to 47 per cent), while tying with Philippe.
By contrast, Le Pen, tested only against Philippe, would lose, 48 per cent to 52 per cent.
🔴 EXCLUSIF : la plus grande enquête électorale depuis 2022
— Hexagone – La France en chiffres (@Hexagone_org) May 5, 2025
Voici la synthèse de notre sondage réalisé avec @IfopOpinion auprès d'un échantillon inédit de 10 000 personnes
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That development was potentially politically explosive. Le Pen has spent decades reshaping the RN, even ousting her own father from the party to achieve this, while positioning herself as a legitimate presidential candidate.
Her prospects for 2027 were put in jeopardy due to her conviction for embezzling European Union funds on March 31, giving her a five-year ban from holding public office pending an appeal in summer 2026.
Although party officials publicly maintained she remained their preferred candidate and expressed confidence in her appeal, Bardella’s polling numbers may cause some to reconsider.
On the centre-right, Retailleau was the strongest performer for the Republicans but would struggle to surpass 10 per cent if Philippe entered the race.
The left remained fragmented. Two figures — de facto leader of La France Insoumise Jean-Luc Mélenchon plus either MEP and Place Publique party member Raphaël Glucksmann or left-wing French MP François Ruffin — appeared capable of making an impact.
According to the IFOP poll, in a Mélenchon versus Glucksmann scenario, Glucksmann lead slightly (15 per cent to 13 per cent). When Mélenchon was pitted against Ruffin, he held a narrow edge (12 per cent to 10 per cent).
Still, volatility remained high: Some 28 per cent of respondents said they had no intention of voting in the second round of the presidential election. The robustness of the IFOP survey was underscored by its large sample size, approximately 10,000 participants.
Bardella’s appeal has been rooted in his youth, media fluency and ability to connect with younger voters. A TikTok sensation with millions of followers, he has helped modernise the RN’s image. His working-class background in the suburbs of Paris enhanced his outsider credentials in a political landscape often dominated by elites.
Critics, though, have warned that his lack of experience — he has never held major office — could prove a liability in a presidential campaign.
While Le Pen has spent decades building political capital, Bardella’s rapid ascent may be seen as premature.
Nonetheless, the RN was now closer than ever to the Élysée Palace, driven by public concerns over immigration, security, and the economy.
Yet the second round remained the party’s major hurdle, with France’s traditional “republican front”, a broad anti-RN alliance, still capable of blocking a right-wing presidency.
Some French observers speculated that the poll was made intentionally with this discord in mind, as it was commissioned by Conservative billionaire Pierre-Édouard Stérin.
According by the news magazine Journal Du Dimanche on May 3, tensions within RN were already rising before the survey.
French National Rally President Jordan Bardella has confirmed he would step forward as a presidential candidate if de facto chief Marine Le Pen were unable to run. https://t.co/XpuvV7Ptbx
— Brussels Signal (@brusselssignal) April 28, 2025