Three months after their defeat in the parliamentary elections, France’s hard-right National Rally party officially kicked off a new political campaign on October 6, under the slogan “Until Victory”.
The party is anticipating early elections as it positions itself as the alternative to the current government.
“There will be elections in less than a year,” declared Marine Le Pen, though did not clarify what kind.
She emphasised that France faces major national challenges, and argued that the current government, led by Prime Minister Michel Barnier, lacks the democratic legitimacy required to address effectively these issues.
“France needs a government with strong democratic legitimacy to face the major challenges affecting our nation. The current government cannot respond to these challenges because it has extremely weak democratic legitimacy,” Le Pen said.
She highlighted that Barnier, the Prime Minister enjoys little support in the National Assembly.
“One only has to look at the reception given to Michel Barnier during his general policy speech. I believe no prime minister in the history of the assembly has ever received so little support at the end of such an exercise,” she said.
As the government prepares to disclose its 2025 budget, Le Pen expressed doubts that the government have learned from previous setbacks.
“Today we are waiting for the government to finally unveil the budget for next year, but I have the feeling that no lessons have been learned,” she said.
According to Le Pen, the government is ignoring the clear message sent by the French in the June parliamentary elections that they are dissatisfied with the EU’s treatment of their country.
Both the left-wing coalition and National Rally — collectively around two-thirds of the national assembly — had expressed criticism of the European Union in the run-up to the election, with each side demanding the rejection of austerity measures imposed by the EU.
“It is indeed the French people who must decide the policy they wish to see implemented, and certainly not the technocrats of Brussels, who in the past imposed austerity policies on Greece and Cyprus following budgetary crises,” she warned.
To prepare for what they see as an inevitable victory, National Rally has announced plans for an “endless campaign”, with monthly rallies until their goal is achieved.
Following Le Pen’s speech, Jordan Bardella, president of National Rally, also hinted at the possibility of early elections.
“New electoral battles will come, and they will come very quickly,” Bardella warned. He added, “Recomposition may be a little slower than we might have hoped, but it’s happening, it’s accelerating, and the time for power is not far off.”
While National Rally is preparing for elections, France’s political landscape remains uncertain.
According to the French Constitution, President Emmanuel Macron cannot dissolve the National Assembly and call for new parliamentary elections until June 2025. One year must separate the dissolution of France’s lower legislative chamber.
The only way an election could occur in less than a year is if Macron were to resign, triggering a presidential election.
While few expect Macron to step down, the National Rally could have significant impact on his second term. Should they withdraw their tacit support for Macron’s coalition and side with the Left, it could lead to a political crisis, making it mathematically impossible for Macron to govern effectively.
Questions about Macron ending his second term early could rapidly arise as National Rally’s “Until Victory” campaign and the Left’s opposition pressuring the President.
On October 8, the left-wing coalition, led by the Socialist Party, is set to file a motion of no confidence against Prime Minister Barnier. The question remains: whether the National Rally will vote in favour of this motion or wait for a more strategic moment.