The latest French poll for the European elections confirms the dominance of the Rassemblement National (RN), with an observable change in the age of supporters of the National Right party. Retired people, until now loyal to Emmanuel Macron, are becoming increasingly interested in Marine Le Pen’s and Jordan Bardella’s party.
The change of government and the arrival of Gabriel Attal as prime minister is not yet changing the dynamic of the European elections. The poll conducted by the ELABE institute on January 13th for La Tribune Dimanche confirms a ten-point lead for the Rassemblement National, with 28.5% of voting intentions—well ahead of Emmanuel Macron’s Renaissance party, which only has 18% of voters.
The good results posted by the RN are nothing new, especially as the European elections are generally considered in France to be a ballot with secondary issues, allowing people to express their convictions without calculating the exercise of power, and often very favourable to the Rassemblement National.
In an already well-established trend, the Rassemblement National remains the leading party among the under-35s. After the poll, the Jeunes Républicains (the youth movement of Les Républicains) boasted on X that they were the leading right-wing party among young people in a post that was strongly criticised for including Emmanuel Macron’s Renaissance party in the right-wing, but excluding the Rassemblement National.
The notable change revealed by this latest poll is the rise of Marine Le Pen’s party among voters who have traditionally been reluctant to vote for the RN: pensioners and higher socio-professional categories.
The government list, which would be led by new Minister of Foreign Affairs Stéphane Séjourné, scores poorly as it struggles to attract voters beyond Emmanuel Macron’s core supporters. It remains the first choice of retired people, but this category is growing among RN voters: 19% of the over-65s now wish to vote RN (compared with 23% for Renaissance).
This increase can be explained by the growing difficulties faced by pensioners in terms of purchasing power, but also by the deterioration in their personal security, as the news of the last few months has been filled with cases of assault and rape of elderly people throughout France.
Another notable change is that 24% of the middle to upper middle classes (who, according to the poll’s criteria, “make ends meet without difficulty”) now plan to vote for the RN, compared with 21% for Renaissance.
Outside the Rassemblement National, the right-wing vote goes first to the Les Républicains party, a list led by François-Xavier Bellamy, who headed the list in previous elections. He polls at around 8.5% but fails to attract support from outside his usual voter base.
The list led by Marion Maréchal for Reconquête is estimated at around 5%, bearing in mind that a third of Éric Zemmour’s presidential voters said they intended to vote RN in the European elections.
The Left, which chose not to renew the New Ecological and Social People’s Union (NUPES) coalition for this election and will therefore present separate lists, received 29% of the total vote. The left-wing bloc therefore fell short of the Rassemblement National, meaning none of the individual left-wing lists have managed to break the symbolic 10% barrier. The France Insoumise party is estimated to have reached a ceiling of 7.5%, paying for its excesses of recent months, particularly on the question of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
The interpretation of these figures is always open to question, given the specific stakes involved in the European elections. Very often, the desire to support one’s political camp or to express dissatisfaction with the government takes precedence over strictly European issues. Interest in the ballot remains limited among the French, a majority (61%) of whom are dissatisfied with the way the European Union operates and its action on key issues such as the war in Ukraine, immigration and purchasing power.