The polling stations across the Netherlands closed at 9 pm, and the government published its official exit poll, conducted by Ipsos throughout the day. To the surprise of everyone, Geert Wilders’ PVV not only jumped to first place in the poll but is projected to secure 35 seats, up from 17 in 2021.
At second place is the ex-climate chief Frans Timmermans’ Green/Left-Labor alliance, but only with 26 seats, followed by the outgoing PM Mark Rutte’s VVD with 23 and Pieter Omtzigt’s centrist New Social Contract with 20 seats.
Following another gap, we have the social democrats (D66) with 10 seats, the farmers’ party (BBB) with 7 seats, and all the others with five or less.
Apart from PVV, anti-establishment conservatives are all projected to lose seats. FvD is down from 8 to 3, the JA21 from 3 to 1, and the BVNL will probably not even get in the house. This suggests that many voters on the populist right employed tactical or strategic voting, and united under the PVV banner.
The actual results will be published later in the night. But even if the exit poll’s prediction becomes reality, it would still not mean Wilders is free to form his government with whomever he wants. Parties on the center-right (VVD and NSC) have ruled out joining a coalition with PVV multiple times, while smaller conservative parties would not add enough seats to have a majority.
Despite winning the election with enormous margins, therefore, PVV will probably still end up in opposition, with a grand coalition of left-right establishment parties in government.
Of course, all can change during the negotiations in the coming weeks. One thing’s sure, this day is still one of the biggest victories of Europe’s right-wing populism in decades.