A fiery Western leader on immigration is desperate to deport a series of violent criminals southward to a country the West once had great influence over—but that country is resisting.
France (did you think I was talking about somewhere else?) is home to a very large Algerian population, many of whom the French government has no issue with. Some, however, they would like to see deported to their home country. This includes murderers who have been sentenced to life in prison and social media stars who have stirred up hatred against Jews, among others. The total list of deportees currently stands at 60, a relatively paltry sum.
The problem for France is that they cannot be called deportees—instead, one needs to affix the word “attempted”. That’s because the Algerian government is not playing ball, and has flatly refused to take the deportees. When France sends them to Algeria, they send them back almost immediately. From the Algerian perspective, this entirely makes sense: after all, most of the desired deportees are genuine radicals who would not benefit Algerian society. At “best” they would sit in prison, a drain on the state; at worst, they would be in society, spreading radical ideas.
It also makes sense for Algeria because they are likely aware that there is little France can do about it.
This is not to say the French have not complained. The French Interior Minister, Bruno Retailleau, who is known as an immigration hardliner, said that the Algerian government was trying to “humiliate” France. Not exactly words with which to rally the troops. Which is strange, as the French government is genuinely furious, as they should be. Algeria is indeed humiliating them, as they look incompetent and unable to triumph over a significantly weaker country (this is made all the worse by the fact that the French government still sees itself as something of a great power).
The Trump administration recently ran into the issue of Colombia refusing to take back deportees (or at least refusing to take them back on the scale that the administration desired). But President Donald Trump did not whine about being humiliated: instead, he essentially threatened to nuke Colombia’s economy with massive tariffs. The Colombians folded shortly.
But France has essentially no leverage, and Algeria knows it. Unlike America, France cannot levy tariffs on Algeria. Partially this is due to the European Union’s trade policy, which makes it difficult for countries to levy tariffs independently (France could throw its weight around to tariff Algeria, but this would take time). But it is also due to the fact that tariffing Algeria would be akin to France economically shooting its own leg off. Algeria exports significantly more to France than France does to Algeria: in 2023, Algeria exported almost $7.3 billion worth of products to France, whereas France exported only $4.6 billion to Algeria. And Algeria’s exports are not trinkets: over 90 per cent of France’s imports were petroleum products. They could wean themselves off Algerian gas, but that too would take time; in the meantime, tariffing those would cause gas prices to rise in France, which is never good for any government, much less one which is as rickety as France’s.
France’s exports to Algeria are also splintered among a ton of different types of products; the largest export, cars, was just over 11 per cent. Nothing else was in the double digits, making it hard for France to threaten to withhold some sort of key product from the Algerians.
This lack of leverage is likely why the French government has zoomed in on a threat to revoke the treaty allowing for the (relatively) easy migration of Algerians into France. That agreement gave Algeria generous benefits, like being able to get 10-year resident permits more quickly than other nationalities. It came shortly after Algeria gained independence, when France was still trying to keep some sort of close relationship with its former colony.
But France has failed so far to even credibly threaten to break the treaty. Last week, Retailleau posted that he “[regretted] that Algeria refuses to apply international law.” Further, he threatened to undertake a “gradual response” to Algeria’s refusal to accept the deportees.
Nothing says “we mean business” like “You won’t follow international law” and “We will take a gradual response,” no? The government further declared that it would take six weeks to consider their currently-existing treaties with Algeria, essentially giving their former colony a deadline – or at least trying to. These threats are unlikely to work, for three reasons.
Firstly, France’s influence over Algeria has already been waning. The Algerian government has in previous years reduced the use of French in government communications, universities, and schools. And last year, when France recognised the Western Sahara as part of Morocco (which Algeria strongly opposes), relations got even worse.
Secondly, Algeria does not really have reason to believe France will go through with any cancellation. It is unclear how France could cancel the 1968 treaty, as there is no clause which allows for it, and there is no guarantee that such a cancellation could pass France’s fractured parliament. A French senatorial report from earlier this year called on the government to “initiate a new round of negotiations with Algeria to rebalance the special regime for residence permits and circulation provided by the December 27, 1968 agreement.” To which the Algerian government will likely say, “No,” bringing France back to square one.
One left-wing senator called even this milquetoast suggestion a “provocation,” bringing us to the third reason: Algeria likely knows France does not have the stomach to really crack down here. France would never engage in mass deportations like the Trump administration is doing; the government does not have the political strength, and as Retailleau’s post reveals, they are far too concerned with “international law” to do so even if they did have the numbers in parliament.
This is not to say that France will not eventually work something out with the Algerians. But it will not be a straightforward capitulation by Algeria; they will surely get something for accepting the deportees, if it ever happens. Because much as they would like to believe, France holds no cards. It hasn’t for a long time.