by Giulio Meotti
“Our civilizations know they are mortal” (Paul Valéry, Cahiers)
From the Indo-European invasions (3rd millennium BCE) to the second half of the 20th century, the European population did not undergo demographic changes. Since 1974, in contrast, Western Europe has welcomed an Islamic immigration unprecedented in history and in the rest of the world. This change occurred at the same time as the fertility of European women plummeted below the essential threshold for generational turnover (2,1). Today in Europe there are 1.5 children per woman, which implies a division by three in the number of births in a century. In some regions (northern Italy, eastern Germany, Spain, Greece, eastern Europe) couples have on average only one child, a halving of the population over a lifetime.
“The collapse of the birth rate is a much greater risk than the global warming to civilization,” wrote that contrarian Elon Musk recently. “The child crisis is a big problem,” the 51-year-old businessman told reporters in Stavanger, southwestern Norway. “It is important that people have enough children to keep civilization going. It is said that civilization could disappear with a crash or a groan. If we don’t have enough babies, we will die moaning (wearing) adult diapers. It will be depressing. “
James Pomeroy, economist at HSBC, in a study published on August 22 and released by Les Echos, reveals that in Europe “at the rate at which things are going, the population will have halved by 2070, with the continent at risk of losing 400 million inhabitants by 2100”. France will have 62.3 million inhabitants and Germany 70.3 million. Why won’t there be a collapse?
In France today 29.6 percent of the population aged 0 to 4 is of non-European origin compared to 17.1 percent aged 18 to 24, 18.8 percent aged 40 to 44, and 7, 6 per cent aged 60-64 and 3.1 per cent over 80. This has been revealed in recent days by Insee, the French statistics institute, which examined the last three generations. 16.2 percent of all children between the ages of 0 and 4 in France are children or grandchildren of Maghrebi origin, 7.3 percent are from the rest of Africa and 4 percent are from Asia.
For now, there are only a few French cities with an Islamic majority. Le Monde Diplomatiquetold of Roubaix with a Muslim majority. Le Figaro di Sevran, 50,000 inhabitants, 90 per cent foreign, where neighborhoods like Épeule are already Muslim-majority. Marseille, the second largest city in the country, as early as 2011 the George Soros Open Society Foundation, which provides financial support for immigration to Western countries, revealed “that between 30 and 40 percent of the population is Muslim “. It goes without saying that it is natural to think that the symbolic threshold of 50 percent has already been exceeded, even if there are no studies on this.
The monthly Causeur also wrote about it: “Well over 50 per cent of the Marseille population is North African and black African”. In the 1960s, the second largest city in France was still Provençal, Italian, Armenian and pied-noir. It was only in the 1970s that the invasion took place slowly and inexorably and that Marseille lost more of its “Europeanity” every year.
If this continues, in a generation (30-40 years) all of France will be Islamic.
The data shows that the most profound changes are occurring in urban areas, with people of European descent set to become a minority. Eric Zemmour says that France in a generation “will be a great Lebanon”.
“The proportion of people aged 0-18 born to two non-European parents is exploding in urban areas. A historical demographic change ”, headlines the French monthly Causeur, directed by Elisabeth Lévy, citing a study by France Stratégie, an organization linked to the Prime Minister and set up by Francois Hollande.
Urban areas with more than 100,000 inhabitants. These range from La Courneuve, where 75 per cent between 0-18 years were born to non-EU immigrants, to Villetaneuse (73 per cent), Clichy-sous-Bois (72 per cent), Aubervillie (70 per cent) and Pierrefitte- sur-Seine (69 percent) and many districts of Paris (50 percent in the 19th arrondissement, 43 percent in the 18th arrondissement, 42 percent in the 20th arrondissement and 41 percent in the 13th arrondissement). Even in cities less affected by immigration, such as Rennes, the percentage has tripled in just twenty years (from 7.7 to 22.8 percent).
“In general throughout France “the number of births with at least one foreign parent increased by 63.6 percent, the number of births with both foreign parents increased by 43 percent and the number of births with both French parents it decreased by 13.7 per cent”. The study also explains that immigrant women have a fertility rate of 2.73 children, against 1.9 for the French natives. The contrast is even more marked if we think of the 3.6 children for the Algerian immigrants, 3.5 children for the Tunisian immigrants, 3.4 children for the Moroccan immigrants and 3.1 children for the Turkish immigrants, data also higher than their fertility in the countries of origin …”
Within a generation, Europe will therefore be unrecognizable. Europeans are increasingly aware that the identity of their own civilization is threatened above all by an irresponsible libertarianism, an ideology which, under the pretext of freedom, wants to deconstruct all the bonds that unite man to his family, roots, history, religion, nation, freedom.
This was also foreseen by Boutros Boutros-Ghali, the former UN secretary general, an Egyptian Coptic who knew Islam well, who on 22 May 2007 outlined this vision of the future of Europe: “The unprecedented collapse of the population of Europe and its accelerated aging contrast with the still very rapid population increase in the southern and eastern Mediterranean. This will result in very acute imbalances! From a strictly quantitative point of view, immigration would be a solution. But we cannot treat the question as a problem of communicating vessels. Immigration without precaution risks imploding Western societies at the cost of very serious problems (culture shock, neo-colonial structures, unemployment, etc.) “.
It is not yet understood why, instead of being replaced by immigration that will forever change the culture and religion of Europe, we have not invested in our birth rate. Recent news that the member countries of the European Union issued 2,952,300 residence permits to non-Europeans in 2021, a 31 percent increase compared to 2020, Eurostat reveals. Italy recorded the largest increase, from 105,700 to 274,100 permits in 2021, a record 159 percent.
When a foreign traveler visits Israel in fifty years, he will find a country of 15 million inhabitants, 6 million more than today. But if the same traveler, after stopping in Tel Aviv, catches a flight to Rome, what will he find? Emilia-Romagna and Lombardy will be destined to lose 8.2 and 8.5 percent of their current population (the population will be replenished by foreigners who will win registration in the municipal registers). Veneto, Tuscany, Friuli-Venezia Giulia and Lazio will lose 10 to 20 percent of the population. From 20 to 30 percent the collapse of Piedmont, Liguria, Valle d’Aosta, Marche, Umbria, Abruzzo and Campania; from 30 to 40 percent the massacres in Sicily, Calabria, Puglia, Molise and Sardinia; finally, Basilicata will lose over 40 percent of its population.
But if fifty years seems too distant a period of time, what about 2030? There will be 500,000 fewer Italian children in school, which corresponds to the closure of 25,000 classes. Just open the local news and see how many nurseries have been transformed into retirement homes for the elderly.
Italy will reach 2070 with a population of 47.6 million – 12.1 million less than the year 2020 from which the forecasts start. After then, save those who can and in the presence of a migratory balance with foreign countries which, according to Istat, shows no decline between 2021 (+141 thousand) and 2070 (+118 thousand) and which involves a total credit balance for the next fifty years of 6.5 million foreigners.
In 2050, a third of the Italian population will be composed of foreigners, according to a United Nations report entitled “Replacement migrations: a solution for declining and aging populations”. So doing a bit of math, we discover that over 13 million foreigners will have joined the Italian population since the 1980s by 2070. It will be a cultural melting pot that will explode into cultural and social tensions. We already see them at work, here and there, throughout Europe. Just open the foreign newspapers.
In addition to the loss of 12.1 million, children and young people up to the age of 14 go from 7.7 to 5.5 million, with a contraction of 2.2 million or 29 percent, while the elderly aged 65 and over will pass from 13.9 to 16.3 million, an increase of 2.4 million or 18 percent. Three seniors for each child and boy.
“Italians beware: if you no longer have children, your civilization will commit suicide within a few decades”. On the pages of Le Monde twenty years ago, the scholar Henri Mendras launched this warning expressing astonishment: the inhabitants of the Peninsula “do not seem to take seriously the danger that threatens them”. Going forward at the same pace, the population of Italy will reduce from 60 to 40 million in 2050. “No people can endure such a traumatic event. And the general equilibrium of Europe would be shaken ”, Mendras argues in his essay published by the Parisian newspaper and invites Italian girls to“ resume the role and function of their mothers ”. Otherwise, goodbye Italian civilization: “it will do hara-kiri, it will disappear. And it would be an irreparable and catastrophic loss, for the friends of Italy and for the whole world ”.
The American essayist Rod Dreher is right when this week then suggests re-reading Joseph Roth’s “The March of Radetzky”. In this masterpiece of literature there is the best portrait of a Europe that sank without remission into a tide of ideological materialism and leveling desecration. We know of no other text that portrays the self-destructive masochism of old Europe with more musical levity. Roth recounts an atmosphere of muffled and soporific well-being of those rooms isolated from the world with double windows, wooden walls, heavy velvet curtains, where the culture of Europe was harboring ideas that had to bear fruit, some brilliant, others terrifying.
Roth tells of an increasingly setting sun and the last sweetness of a day that by now had nothing more to give. Europe committing suicide.