Month: April 2022
4 lessons from Orbán’s historic victory
The international press loudly proclaimed that Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán would face his “toughest” election fight ever, polls pointed to his potential defeat, and the EU withheld much-needed recovery funds from Hungary in the run-up to the election. Yet, Orbán not only prevailed, but did so in a fashion that has left many in the Western media and political establishment once again in shock. Now, with the dust settled, what lessons can we take away from his historic win?
The polls were very wrong
Orbán’s crushing victory saw him win 53 percent of the vote and secure another two-thirds majority. Those results are hard to argue with. His opposition rivals, which cobbled together a “Frankenstein” coalition of mostly left-wing parties along with the far-right Jobbik, not only failed to beat Orbán, but they suffered a nearly 20-point defeat.
The Fidesz-KDNP coalition also increased its vote total from 2.6 million in 2018 to 2.7 million in 2022, picking up an extra 100,000 votes. In contrast, the six parties that made up the opposition saw their vote total fall a whopping 899,000 votes, falling from 2.69 million votes in 2018 to just 1.8 million in 2022.
There have been similar polling upsets in the past, including Donald Trump’s first election victory, Brexit, and many more. While there is little doubt that polling remains our best tool for measuring public sentiment, accurate polling also faces serious challenges in the modern era, and that means the polls sometimes get it extremely wrong. There is also the possibility that in some cases, polls are used to sway public sentiment before an election even begins, with the oversampling of Democrats in some U.S. election polls raising claims of manipulation.
The media got Hungary wrong again, but that doesn’t mean they’ll change their tune
There is little doubt that Orbán’s victory has the left-liberal mainstream that dominates the EU gnashing their teeth. George Soros, the NGOs, the international press ranging from the Guardian to the New York Times, all tried to tip the scale in favor against Fidesz, but as Orbán said in his victory speech, “Every penny given to the Hungarian left was a waste of money – it seems that the Hungarian left was the worst investment of Uncle George Soros’ life. For 12 years, the opposition has just been taking money.”
Even for those on the left who hate Orbán, it might be expected that.a certain grudging respect would be due. He has outlasted all his competitors not only in his own country, but is also the longest-serving leader in the entire European Union. No Western leader will admit it openly, but the democratic mandate that the Hungarian people have entrusted Orbán with is the envy of leaders across the free world. In a free and fair election, Orbán obtained his supermajority with nearly 70 percent of the country heading to the polls. In other countries, such as Germany, parties struggle for even a quarter of the vote, and shaky coalitions are needed to keep their countries running.
The reality is that Orbán’s popularity presents a huge problem for the EU and the international press, which are forced to create an alternate reality to deal with this. On one hand, these actors accuse Orbán of being “undemocratic” while on the other hand, there is the plain-as-day fact that he has the biggest democratic mandate of any leader in Europe. This reality infuriates them so much that they can only choose to ignore it or maliciously misrepresent it. So, they repeat their mantra of “authoritarianism” and “a lack of democracy” until they not only have convinced the Western public of this, but also themselves. The only other possibility is to acknowledge that Orbán is wildly popular relative to the likes of Olaf Scholz and Emmanuel Macron, and that is unthinkable.
Maintaining this farce may seem complicated at first, but Orbán has won resounding victories before, and in fact, he won a supermajority already in the last election. This has never given Orbán’s international or domestic critics pause, and has only led them to double down on their outlandish claims. Orbán’s positions on immigration restriction, Christianity, national populism, and preserving traditional Hungarian culture may be unpopular with the liberal class in Brussels, London and Berlin, but it was the Hungarian people who had the final say at the end of the day, and they have little doubt about who should lead them.
Hungary remains a success story
It is not just cultural issues and the existential threat of demographic replacement that motivates Hungarians to back Orbán either. The Hungarian government has improved the lives of Hungarians by nearly economic and demographic metric.
Under the Fidesz rule, marriage rates have increased, the fertility rate has risen, divorce rates have fallen, and unemployment has reached record lows. In fact, there were recently more Hungarians at work than before the pandemic. Hungarians are not only working, but they are earning more, with real wages rising. The markets have also reacted to Orbán’s victory, with the Hungarian currency, the forint, trading at 367.51 forints to one euro, 8.1 percent stronger since the lows in early March.
In short, the culture war remains as important as ever, but economic well-being is essential for any political party looking to remain in power over the long-term.
Hungary remains a pivotal battleground for the future of the West
The different political camps in the West knew what was at stake with the election. Orbán is arguably the figurehead of the West’s national conservative movement and his defeat would have most certainly kicked away one of the last defenses in the way of an already very powerful liberal-left. Hungary, a small country of 10 million in the heart of Europe, is now seen as a bulwark against aggressive efforts to centralize power in Brussels, open Europe’s borders, create an EU army beholden to no national parliament, and pursue an anti-Christian, progressive agenda. That is why both liberals and conservatives ranging from powerful voices like Tucker Carlson to smaller outlets like American Greatness, have been devoting so much time and energy to the topic of Hungary’s government and yesterday’s elections. With Trump out of office and Bolosonaro facing the possibility of defeat in Brazil, Orbán is one of the last populist leaders offering an alternative to globalism and multiculturalism.
The Hungarian government faces real challenges ahead, with the ongoing war in Ukraine, rampant inflation hitting countries across the globe, and an EU bloc united in opposition to any conservative government. How Hungary responds to these challenges may very well portend whether the national conservative movement survives and flourishes, or is snuffed out by its many enemies on the global stage.
Germany: An Eritrean and a Tunisian fight over a bottle of cooking oil
A physical altercation allegedly took place in a wholesale shop in Stralsund over a bottle of cooking oil.
According to initial information, two men got into an argument in the wholesale shop for catering supplies in Lindenstraße in Stralsund. A 33-year-old man with Eritrean nationality wanted to buy a bottle of cooking oil there.
“This was refused to him by a 31-year-old employee of the wholesaler. The Tunisian employee explained that no sales to individuals were possible in a wholesale shop,” a police spokesperson said on Monday.
The dispute over this escalated to such an extent that it then came to a mutual exchange of blows in front of the building, according to the current state of the investigation. The 33-year-old later filed a complaint for assault.
However, none of the participants had visible injuries. The police have started an investigation on suspicion of assault.
Two EU elections highlight sympathy for President Putin
Hungary’s parliament elected pro-Russian Katalin Novak as president of the republic of Hungary. She will be the first female president of Hungary to take the presidential oath of office and will become the sixth Hungarian president on May 10. Serbia’s election also saw a landslide win for incumbent pro-Russian President Aleksandar Vucic.
Katalin Novak, the former minister without portfolio responsible for youth and family affairs, won a resounding victory with 137 votes out of 188 valid votes. Economist Peter Rona, the opposition’s candidate, received only 51 votes. Altogether 195 deputies had cast their votes.
Novak, a member of the victorious Fidesz party, has pledged to promote peace amid an election overshadowed by the conflict in Ukraine.
Fighting Zelensky too
Viktor Orban will be serving a fourth term as prime minister. Orban’s victory defied fake polls and reports from Bloomberg News that had predicted that the Hungarian leader would face his toughest challenge to re-election in his 12 years in power.
Orban, in his party’s victory speech, called Ukraine’s President Vladimir Zelensky one of the “opponents” he had to face during the campaign.
“We have such a victory, it can be seen from the Moon, but it’s sure that it can be seen from Brussels,” Orban told the media on Sunday. “We will remember this victory until the end of our lives because we had to fight against a huge number of opponents.” The opponents included not only domestic political foes but “Brussels bureaucrats, the Soros empire – with all its money – the international mainstream media, and in the end, even the Ukrainian president. We never had so many opponents at the same time.”
The prime minister, the EU’s longest-serving premier, said before the vote that the Hungarian left posed a serious threat to peace, while Fidesz was the only guarantee of not going to war. “I’ve never seen anything like this,” he added. He explained that NATO should not be sending weapons and soldiers to the conflict in Ukraine. “Our position is the majority position at present, and therefore NATO decided not to take part in this military conflict: it will not send soldiers, it will not send weapons.”
Evidently, Anglo-American countries and allies would like NATO to become involved in this conflict as much as possible, he said.
According to Orban, if the Left had won the elections, weapons shipments to Ukraine would start immediately, all deadly weapons would be allowed through the territory of Hungary, and all weapons not currently used by Hungary that are fit for use in an armed conflict would be placed at Ukraine’s disposal with immediate effect.
The victory of Fidesz however means that Hungary’s access to billions of euros of crucial EU funding will remain blocked by Brussels as a punishment. Orban said he observed that Hungary was accused of being friendly with the Russians, but it was completely evident that Germany had built much closer relations with Moscow, and many French companies had not left Russia despite the war.
Serbia will not abandon Russia
In Serbia, President and presidential candidate Aleksandar Vucic also surprised Western pundits with his decisive victory in Sunday’s presidential election.
Vucic’s victory with nearly 60 percent of the vote, was even better than his 2017 election result. He also ran for a second five-year term on a promise of peace. Pressure from Anglo-American governments to abandon Serbia’s traditional ties with Moscow came to naught.
Vucic said the conflict in Ukraine affected the campaign: “The influence of the Ukrainian crisis on the election results was huge,” he admitted. “We will maintain policy that is important for the Europeans, Russians and Americans, and that is … military neutrality,” he said, adding: “Serbia will try to preserve friendly and partnership relations in many areas with the Russian Federation.”
Moscow has supported Belgrade’s opposition to the independence of Kosovo by blocking its membership to the United Nations. Furthermore, Serbia is almost entirely dependent on Russian gas and it has refused to impose sanctions against Moscow.
https://freewestmedia.com/2022/04/04/two-eu-elections-highlight-sympathy-for-president-putin/
Anger grows among the Austrian population over raping Afghans – The general crime rate of Afghans is even twelve times higher for sexual crimes than for the average resident population
“What else has to happen?”: eXXpress readers are angry at Austria’s politicians for not reacting at all to new sex attacks by Afghans – like the recent rape of a girl (16) by three Afghans and an Iraqi at Linz central station.
Only a few months ago there was at least a decent reaction to a particularly shocking crime, but now Austrian domestic politics – government and opposition alike – no longer even form a working group when four young migrants from Afghanistan and Iraq rape a 16-year-old girl in Linz. Diana P., an eXXpress reader, is also annoyed by this development, she says on the eXXpress reader’s telephone: “This carelessness is unbelievable. They all keep quiet about it – and the politicians act as if nothing can be done about it.”
Of course something could be done about these repetitive crimes committed by young migrants against women: Tougher, deterrent punishments, for example. Or as former Bild editor-in-chief Julian Reichelt put it: “If you want the protection of a country, don’t rape anyone.”
Since the Taliban took power in Afghanistan, however, NGOs and refugee counsellors again have a justification for preventing the deportation of rapists and other criminals from Afghanistan: If deported to their home country, the perpetrators would “face the death penalty”.
The Austrian federal government’s powerlessness and inaction has apparently already spread to the smallest refugee flat-share: Once again a schoolgirl (16) was raped in Linz, three Afghans and an Iraqi were taken into custody, the suspects are only 14 and 15 years old.
The rape of the girl by Afghans is not an isolated case throughout Austria – here are the most well-known crimes in recent years (i.e. four examples that have not been concealed from the media):
In June of the previous year, four young Afghans drugged and sexually abused Leonie, who was only 13 years old, in the district of Vienna-Donaustadt; the dying girl was dumped on a grass verge.
For two attempted rapes, an Afghan (20) got off with three years in prison in Vienna in spring 2020. It is unlikely that he had to serve the full length of the prison sentence.
The three rapists (16 and 17 years old) who assaulted and raped a Turkish exchange student at Praterstern in April 2016 are already free after serving their short sentences. They would have had to transfer 24,000 euros in compensation for pain and suffering to the student, but did not pay a cent.
An Afghan (18) who raped a female pensioner (72) in the Schwechater Au near Traiskirchen in 2015 was also sentenced to only 20 months in prison. The court awarded his victim only 5,000 euros in compensation for pain and suffering.
Even the left-leaning Viennese weekly “Falter” wrote in an analysis of the increasingly evident problem with raping young Afghans since 2015: “The general crime rate of Afghans is four times as high as in the average resident population, nine times for drug offences and even twelve times for sexual crimes”. This has been confirmed by scientific studies of the Institute for Advanced Studies (IHS). Afghan perpetrators have a “highly problematic image of women”.
If the Minister of the Interior and the Minister of Justice continue to ignore these facts, the danger for possible further young Austrian victims will not decrease.
Finally, the Freedom Party (FPÖ) issued a statement: “The rape is another unmistakable wake-up call to all integration daydreamers,” said Manfred Haimbuchner, FPÖ state party leader and deputy state governor. “Integration has not only failed, it has not even taken place to a large extent. It is high time that our legal system once again protects our population.”
https://exxpress.at/lautes-schweigen-der-politik-zu-vergewaltigungen-durch-afghanen/
France: Homosexual Muslim who was disowned by his family therefore crashes his car into a random passer-by
A 30-year-old man is on trial from this Monday, April 4, 2022, to Wednesday, April 6, for allegedly deliberately crashing into a passer-by in Perpignan in 2018.
On November 12, 2018, police were called to a traffic accident on Rue des Mimosas in Perpignan. According to initial information, a car driver had driven onto the pavement and violently hit a pedestrian, who was thrown several metres and finally crashed into a lamp post.
The 56-year-old victim, who was in a coma and had suffered severe brain trauma, was taken to hospital and was in danger of losing his life. The 50-year-old, who was assisted by lawyer Lise Peltier, has since been unable to recollect the crime, but has significant consequential damages, including a loss of physical health.
The then 26-year-old driver was stopped at the scene of the accident and admitted to being under the influence of a cocktail of cocaine, cannabis and medication. In the course of the investigation, he had provided several versions of the facts. It was like a dream, I felt pushed to do it, my hands turned the steering wheel,” he said.
(…) “He is a man in great psychological problems,” added lawyer Gérald Brivet-Galaup, who will be handling his defence together with lawyer Heloïse Dulieu. “Under no circumstances should he be mixed up with terrorist acts, which have nothing to do with this case and for which he should not be prosecuted in any way. He is homosexual, Muslim and has been disowned by his family. He is depressed, suicidal and falls into the realm of nursing rather than correctional services.” The verdict is expected on Wednesday April 6. L’Indépendant
Time’s Up! Orbán Wins in Hungary! Despite Massive Soros Assault
‘It’s a Lie!’ – Germany’s Leftist Chancellor Launches Verbal Assault on Anti-Lockdown Protesters
Germany’s left-wing Chancellor has verbally attacked a group of anti-lockdown protesters, accusing them of lying.
Olaf Scholz, Germany’s leftist pro-compulsory vaccination Chancellor, launched a verbal assault on a group of anti-lockdown protesters on Saturday, accusing them of lying about a lack of free speech in Germany.
Scholz’s defence of Germany’s free speech record, such as it is, comes shortly after mass raids were conducted by the country’s police last month against people who had made online posts insulting elected German officials.
According to a report by Der Spiegel, Scholz was speaking at a rally in Essen, North-Rhine Westphalia when the verbal altercation occurred, which saw Scholz respond to anti-lockdown hecklers with accusations that they were spreading lies.
“Hello! Shout out, because this is what we are fighting for and what the citizens of Ukraine are fighting for. That you can say your opinion out loud without having to be afraid,” Scholz is reported as telling the anti-lockdown protesters.
“That’s why I don’t accept the evil cynicism with which some say that you can’t express your opinion on this topic here,” he continued in reference to accusations Germany was suppressing alternative viewpoints. “It’s a lie!”
“Take a look around the dictatorships of this world and you’ll know what that means,” he went on. “Just because you yell loudly doesn’t make you right. But you need a few arguments for that. And one of these arguments is that the corona pandemic is a great threat to all of humanity.”
While Scholz appeared adamant that it was a “lie” to say that anti-lockdown protesters could not express their views on the pandemic in Germany, there is some significant evidence to the contrary.
Since the advent of the pandemic, there have been multiple crackdowns perpetrated by state authorities against those protesting Chinese coronavirus restrictions, with bans on peaceful protests not infrequent during periods of lockdown.
Federal officials have also taken aim at messaging service Telegram for not adhering to German laws regarding political censorship, with the country’s government even at one stage threatening to ban the app — often used to organise anti-lockdown protests.
However, even discounting the various clampdowns on anti-lockdown demos in the country, Germany has recently engaged in actions not often seen in other supposed liberal democracies.
For example, as mentioned above, federal and local police within the country conducted mass raids against the civilian population last month in retaliation for reported instances of politicians being threatened, insulted, or defamed online.
During the so-called “joint day of action”, around 100 people were “searched and questioned” in relation to online posts deemed as potentially criminal, with insulting elected officials in the European Union member-state being considered an offence.
“With the day of action, we are making it clear: Anyone who posts hate messages must expect the police to be at the door afterwards,” said the President of the Federal Criminal Police Office, Holger Münch, regarding the policing operation.
German Retailers To Increase Food Prices By 20-50% On Monday
Just days after Germany reported the highest inflation in generation (with February headline CPI soaring at a 7.6% annual pace and blowing away all expectations), giving locals a distinctly unpleasant deja vu feeling even before the Russian invasion of Ukraine broke what few supply chains remained and sent prices even higher into the stratosphere…
… on Monday, Germany will take one step toward a return of the dreaded Weimar hyperinflation, when according to the German Retail Association (HDE), consumers should prepare for another wave of price hikes for everyday goods and groceries with Reuters reporting that prices at German retail chains will explode between 20 and 50%!
Even before the outbreak of war in Ukraine, prices had risen by about five per cent “across the product range” as a result of increased energy prices, HDE President Josef Sanktjohanser told the Neue Osnabrücker Zeitung on Friday. With Russia’s invasion hitting economies and the supply chain harder, yet another series of price increases is on the horizon.
“The second wave of price increases is coming, and it will certainly be in double figures,” Sanktjohanser warned, cited by The Local.
According to the president of the trade association, the first retail chains have already started to raise their prices in Germany – and the rest are likely to follow.
“We will soon be able to see the impact of the war reflected in price labels across all the supermarkets,” said Sanktjohanser.
Recently, popular retail chains such as Aldi, Edeka and Globus announced that they would be forced to raise their prices. At Aldi, meat and butter will be “significantly more expensive” from Monday due to price hikes from its suppliers.
“Since the start of the Ukraine war, there have been jumps in purchase prices that we have not experienced before,” a spokesperson for Aldi Nord announced on Friday.
A fortnight ago, Aldi raised the prices of about 160 items, and a week later 20 more items became more expensive. Other supermarket brands quickly followed suit.
In February, Germany’s cost of living rose at the highest level since reunification, with everyday goods increasing by an average of 7.3%. The federal statistics agency Destatis said the jump from January’s figure of 5.1 percent to February’s 7.3 percent reflected the impact of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which has sent the price of oil and gas soaring.
According to a recently published survey by the Ifo Institute, almost all companies in Germany’s food retail sector are planning price increases.
Though price increases are a worry for Germany’s hard-hit consumers, industry experts don’t expect there to be a lack of products on the shelves anytime soon. Which, of course, is to be expected when prices surge so high far fewer can afford to buy products.
According to Joachim Rukwied, president of the farming association, the food supply in Germany is assured for at least another year – though after this the forecasts are less certain. With rumors of shortages swirling around, however, supermarket owners have been complaining of the sort of panic-buying not seen since the first months of pandemic.
As previously noted, German supermarkets have even started limiting the purchase of cooking oils and flour in particular to prevent a mad rush to stock up on items that customers believe will run out. In other words, limit the sale of those products which are in highest demand, also known as a “brilliant strategy.”
And now that everyday food product prices are about to surge as much as 50%, it will be interesting to watch how much longer the German population will condone a NATO stance that has been seeking to stoke and perpetuate the war in Ukraine.